Recently in UBP Category

An aspiring young PLP politician wants senior PLP MPs in safe seats to step down so new blood can step in.

That is one of the dynamics that shredded the UBP.

Good luck with that.

The UBP are taking abuse, and rightly so, for not releasing the vote count from their leadership election - even to the delegates.

There goes the high ground on transparency guys. What are they thinking?

ZBM announced, and the website confirms that the former UBPers are launching tomorrow as the Bermuda Democratic Alliance.

Website ready to go at bermudademocraticalliance.bm or thealliance.bm.

How do I know? Am I involved? Nope. I just guessed the first domain and it refers to the latter.

Good luck to them.

Two important and highly anticipated reports released on successive days. Yesterday was the report on young black males and today was the Bermuda First Report.

I've skimmed both but need to digest more.

My first reaction is that both support the arguments that serious commentators have been saying for some time but has been lost in all the shrill background noise (not unintentional):

• on race we won't see parity until we fix education in general and a horrendous dropout rate.
• on the economy the near term outlook is poor but doesn't have to be that way. The most important factors to ensure continued economic success and expansion is to eliminate the internal attacks on our sole economic pillar, put tourism in the hands of non-political professionals and be pro-active in the face of external threats to the financial services sector

None of these conclusions are particularly earth shattering or novel, but it is very helpful to have them presented by non-partisan groups/individuals and can hopefully allow the serious side of politics - policy making - to take precedence over the deeply un-serious campaigns of the past decade.

How quickly things can change.

I've said to a number of people that the PLP were very fortunate to have gone to the polls in December 2007, when the good times appeared to be rolling. That resulted in a shallow and un-serious campaign dominated by shrill tactics and demagoguery.

That wouldn't have played so well in December of 2008 during the economic crisis, or December 2009 with Bermuda's economy showing signs of pain.

While the UBP would almost certainly still not have won, I suspect voters would have given them a harder look; on the issues they were much, much more serious and substantive. The popular vote very well could have been closer and the UBP may have pulled another seat or two.

It's a shame that the UBP are so bad on the politics while the PLP are the complete inverse, giving complete primacy to the politics, leaving the policy as an afterthought or trying to catch up.

The optimal answer is somewhere in the middle - reality based politics grounded in achievable public policy.

Hopefully these reports can usher in an era of somber seriousness. Bermuda is indeed at a crossroads, one that we were approaching in the late 90s early 2000's but was delayed by the reinsurance boom post September 11th and Hurricanes Katrina, Rita and Wilma.

It's time to face the music.

With everyone talking about doing things differently why are they all stuck in the same old arguments? Move on folks. Wasn't this what this was about?

There's an awful lot of attacks, the same old finger pointing and weak excuses.

What there isn't a lot of is substance (here or here) about how things will be different.

Everyone should stop overthinking this stuff.

Say what you believe and do what you say.

I love polls, but enough already. It's impossible to make sense of any of this when you have the parties, the papers and others releasing polls at random intervals which are then put against other polls.

All we've got at this point is noise. (Hint to the press, a chart with trends (same pollster please) would help rather than a 2,500 word treatise).

It doesn't takes a pollster to tell you that support for the UBP is evaporating, and it doesn't carry much weight when you have a party selectively releasing details from a pollster with no history of polling in Bermuda.

A little strategic skirmish perhaps?

Former United Bermuda Party MP Mark Pettingill says his old colleagues should keep their noses out of Bermuda's foreign policy -- like they told Premier Ewart Brown to do.

Meta message: "We're not the UBP."

Expect more of these. I'd anticipate more disagreements with the UBP than with the PLP in the near time.

Wayne Furbert did the same thing when he left the UBP. His first vote in Parliament as an Independent was with the Premier to be the deciding vote in the truck licensing vote.

Was it on the issue or to establish his independence? I'd go with the latter.

I know as much as anyone else about what might be said or go down in the UBP's general membership meeting tonight.

I have had very little contact with the UBP in over a year, before the election really, other than when I bump into some of the folks on the street, the occasional email correspondence with those I consider more friends than than political contacts.

Occasionally I get the irresistible urge to call someone up and bitch and moan about what they're not saying, why they need to be more aggressive, and they always humour the dude who won't shut up and listen to my rants.

The only thing that I did hear today is that the meeting could be a sort of climax of much of the internal back and forth over future direction. I doubt that means some immediate statement as the press will no doubt want, but it's probably healthy because the party has been drifting for too long.

The core problem for the UBP is that it is a coalition (which is also it's strength), but that the coalition has become quite fragile and long ago ceded their branding to the PLP attack machine.

They've failed to claim their many historical accomplishments and allowed the caricature that the PLP paint of them to go unchallenged.

So not being in Government has compounded the problem because UBP types tend to be managers and their strengths are in managing organisations but they've proven terrible at the politics.

The PLP are of course the inverse, they've got the politics down but are terrible managers of the Government (mostly because they look at everything as a political issue to be addressed not a policy one).

So what we're seeing now is a fragile coalition that is struggling to find something to coalesce around, while the PLP base are easily rallied.

It shouldn't have gone unnoticed that as soon as Ewart Brown's leadership began to be publicly questioned post election he focused on what gets the PLP base back in line: attacks on the UBP and attacks on the press (all of which are wrapped in race).

You might also have noticed that this is exactly what John McCain's campaign have done since his VP pick, he's staged phony outrage about Obama, worked the media bias angle, and portrayed Obama as a scary non-American. (The irony of course is that most PLP Obama supporters in Bermuda will be able to both horrified at the attacks on Obama while deploying the same tactics against the UBP).

I digress.

So it will be interesting to see what comes out of tonight's meeting. Obviously I'm not there because I'm typing this and because I'm not a member anymore. Haven't been for about 2 years. I just haven't advertised the fact.

My membership expired and I consciously haven't renewed it because I have become increasingly alienated by the destructive nature of the historical party battles and the UBP's inability (and at times unwillingness) to effectively counter the PLP attack machine.

That doesn't mean that I don't support them. I remain convinced that the UBP's values and principles will best serve Bermuda, despite the challenges that the party faces in holding together a broad coalition in a Bermuda which the PLP would like to keep racially polarised for a political end.

But I am pretty much of the mind that both parties need to go away.

Perhaps, when we wake up tomorrow, we'll be half way there. Or perhaps, we'll see them continue the difficult but noble task of pushing unity and tolerance in the face of an aggressive and dogmatic counter-campaign of polarisation and division.

I've been suffering from computer problems (or perhaps more precisely Vista problems) lately, which is causing incredibly frustrating random work losing blue screen of death reboots, so you're going to have to bear with me. This is attempt four at a post.

I've been resisting the temptation to correct for the record every untruth and point out each contrived PR move on the recently rebooted PLP website, like today's posting. It's hard, because the UBP (more on that later) aren't particularly lively lately, so I have to go to the tried and true shrill doctors over at PLP-land for my fix.

I'm not sure though if I'm hyper-sensitive to political PR tactics, but whoever is doing the PR over there is so far providing a poor imitation of Karl Rove politics, although I must say that I do like today's posting of photos over the weekend:

During Emancipation week, Premier Ewart Brown and the rest of the PLP leadership were out and about in the community meeting with Bermudians and talking about the issues that matter to people's lives. Here are a few scenes from Emancipation Week:

Or, translated: "See party delegates! We have photographic proof that the Premier and our MPs aren't elitist. We staged some photo-ops over Cup Match."

The calculation behind it all is so terribly obvious that it doesn't strike me as particularly effective, although it did seem to succeed during the election.

I don't quite know what to make of it all to be honest. Good PR has an element of sophistication to it, this just seems incredibly amateurish.

But on to what I really wanted to talk about, a PR trainwreck of the UBP sort. The story that isn't progressing; Wayne Furbert's long goodbye from the UBP.

I think this is installment 3.0 of "I'm gonna do it, I really am", to which I'll say what I said to Wayne months ago when I saw him on the street: "Do it. Stop threatening and do it."

I don't mean that in the good riddance sense at all. I mean it in the sense that he clearly is unhappy with what is going on - or perhaps is not going on - in the UBP and is looking for an exit strategy. It would be a shame to see Wayne and the UBP part ways.

Saying that, at the minimum, you can't publicly moot crossing the floor to the PLP as he does - a move I don't get the impression he really wants to do but would allow him to feel like he was back in the game - and expect your colleagues to not keep you at a distance and treat you with suspicion. You can't have someone in caucus who is flirting with the other side.

To be honest, I think that semi-threat alone is hard to walk back from and retain any credibility and standing in his party.

I have never understood unconditional support of a political party, so I completely understand that Wayne feels out of step with the direction of his party and thinks that he has to move on. I get that. I support that. People change, parties change (or perhaps don't depending on your perspective) and as such these things happen.

The headline today of "Furbert to give UBP 'last chance'" however rings hollow because he's threatened this several times now. I understand the difficultly in parting ways when he has been a long-serving MP, Cabinet Minister and Opposition Leader, but I think he knows what he wants to do but is looking for some event to give him that opportunity to make a clean break.

This 'don't make me do it' kind of threat, this public dance, seems terribly indecisive and is one of the things that made him a not particularly effective party leader.

I wouldn't rule out him crossing the floor, but it wouldn't seem particularly credible based on our many years of talking politics and his view on Bermuda and the methods and policies of the PLP.

These comments today highlight that:

Pressed on what policy change was needed Mr. Furbert said the UBP platform was pretty strong.

"If anyone wanted to vote about issues, we won.

But then again, Jamahl Simmons used to lambaste the PLP viciously both publicly and privately, including all 3 PLP Premiers and most MPs since 1998 to me, yet he managed to switch over without a second thought.

I think that Wayne could sit as a very credible, reasonably influential Independent. As a PLP MP he would be too beholden to them , having to prove his loyalty and never being truly trusted (although Dr. Brown likes to have people around him who need to stay in his favour rather than people of principle).

Wayne could then use this Independent status to try and launch a viable third party over the next few years. The odds are against him, but that looks to me like the only way he can retain his sense of self and credibility in the community.

On a related note, being the UBP's report that Wayne was so disappointed in, I haven't seen it, nor do I have much interest in seeing.

I think the debate in the UBP is actually quite simple at it's core.

The split seems to be between those who take a short term approach and those who are looking at this as a long term revitalisation. Both strike me as having their appeal.

The short term view says that Bermuda can't afford more years under the PLP and that the UBP would need to either disband or radically restructure to launch a realistic shot at taking the majority. Bermuda is suffering and it could be irreversible if it isn't stopped quickly.

The long term view (which is more the personality of the UBP - incrementalists) is that the UBP has to rebuild their support but that it will take time. I would say at least 2 elections (barring a massive PLP collapse) to claw back enough ground to be competitive due to a number of factors from a tarnished brand and powerful racial politics to seats that are a gerrymandered under the single-seat setup just as much as they were under the dual-seat setup.

I'm a little torn.

Personally, I wouldn't lose any sleep if the UBP were to go away and something new were to emerge. It would at least force a new dynamic to the tiring and crippling PLP (aka black) vs UBP (aka white) battle which is just so dull and predictable but mostly destroying the soul of this community.

However, I don't for a second think that the PLP attack machine won't just recalibrate and start to rebrand any new party as 'still the UBP'.

On the other hand, the kind of gains needed on the electoral map take time to occur, you don't get 20% moves between elections unless there is some major crisis and scandal. And I'm not sure we're at that point yet, as the PLP brand seems to be quite resilient, particularly in the face of Dr. Brown's right wing policies which aren't for one bit pro-labour (or pro-Bermudians for that matter).

If the UBP decide to stay the course and make incremental change, which I think is the most likely scenario, their best short-term hope is that Ewart Brown does to his party what Tony Blair did to Labour in the UK, Jean Cretien did to Canada's Liberals, and George Bush has done to the US Republicans.

Otherwise their time will come again, but it could be a few elections at least unless there is an unforseen game changing internal event (ie. a new highly credible, highly charismatic figure emerges).

Those three party leaders have destroyed their parties brands and left their successors with political fundamentals that are so bad that it is almost impossible to turn around in a short time. The sentiment is simply one of 'time for a change'.

The big difference there is that those countries lack the deep well of racial campaigning and identity politics to fall back on as the PLP did in the 2007 campaign (although the McCain campaign seems to be doing a dry run at the moment).

Well, Kim Swan was certainly himself yesterday at his first press conference as Opposition Leader.

Kim is, if you'll allow me to state the obvious, passionate. That's exactly how he is, internally or externally. He's torn a few strips off me on occasion, as well as probably everybody else. He's harder on the UBP internally than he is on the PLP. I like that.

He'll bring a totally different approach than previous leadership. He's combative and will accept bare knuckle politics as necessary. No more polite disagreements.

Michael Dunkley and Grant Gibbons were managers, Wayne Furbert was very emotive and grass roots but not much of a manager, and I'd peg Kim as emotive but extremely committed and driven and connected to the public.

Does his move to UBP leader end any discussion of anything along the continuum from a rebranding all the way to a disbanding? I don't think so.

I don't say that to suggest that Kim is a caretaker, but to say that the process of change needs to continue. And he's a good person to lead that discussion and move the party onto a new footing after decades of seeing themselves as managers first, politicians second.

This isn't just an overnight decision for a group of people who were elected and have a role to fill representing both their constituents and providing an alternative voice in Parliament (where I think the UBP excels - policy and legislation - it's the politics where they're getting beaten).

Kim definitely will bring a much more grass roots approach and a commitment to connecting on an emotional level.

People will try and portray him as angry I'm sure, but that's a simplistic representation. I'm sure the PLP attack machine will be retooling, switching the 'white supremacist leader' playbook for the 'black puppet leader' playbook.

But he doesn't fit that mold particularly well. So that attack won't fly with Kim, and there's no way he'll sit by and be smeared. He's a fighter, and when he channels his passion properly can be very effective. He's been around politics for a long time.

I was a little surprised with the announcement, but he's an interesting choice and will probably move fast to make his mark. But I am sure, and I have no insight internally here, that the conversations about the party's direction and viability will continue, as they should.

Kim Swan is the new Opposition Leader.

Following up on yesterday's rather light-hearted comments on the UBP taking their time selecting a leader, the Great Satan, I mean The Royal Gazette (joke alert), has an article today where new UBP MP Donte Hunt comments on what the future could hold.

Donte is, from the few times we've spoken, a total class act. He's genuine, thoughtful and no one's puppet (nor were any of the UBP candidates). So it was refreshing to see him speaking on the topic of the UBP leadership selection process and the potential for a third party openly and thoughtfully.

As is typical of UBPers, he doesn't want to do anything rash but plan it out to maximise the likelihood of a positive outcome. Thinking strategically is a good trait.

I'm in agreement with his points, which are essentially that if the UBP as a political operation is too difficult of an entity to move forward with that another party should and could arise, which could include some of the UBP's recently elected MPs.

I have no problem with some MPs moving over to a new organisation (I highly, highly doubt you'll see any UBP MP go to the PLP as the party doesn't reflect their views and just as importantly their political temperament).

This is exactly why the call for the UBP to hurriedly select a new leader is a red herring.

As I said 10 days ago:

But what is more interesting about the election outcome is what it suggests about the future prospects for the UBP, because they have appear to hit a brick wall.

As they are prone to do they're methodically working through the issues and implications of the last election internally, and I believe will make the decision that needs to be made.

...

So on that basis I think the UBP's time is limited, and that a new entity will eventually arise, although the UBP needs to persist for awhile to allow a new organisation to be created that doesn't just see UBP support flow right over to it.

This is where I think a lot of the anti-UBP zealots don't understand about many, many people who have chosen to support the UBP...such as myself.

We support principles and ideals. The UBP is/was the political organisation most in tune with those. There's no blindly devoted love affair with the letters 'UBP'.

I'm not heavily invested in making sure the UBP survives forever, I'm invested in moving our politics and policy forward.

The UBP (and any political party) is only useful as a vehicle to advance the political values that I subscribe to, namely a people oriented organisation built around accountability, diversity, tolerance and good governance.

If the UBP can no longer do that (for whatever reasons), then it should get out of the way. But the party still has a lot to offer - and has done a lot of good for Bermuda (much of it the PLP has claimed as their own) - and their MPs currently have 47% of the population to represent.

For the sitting UBP MPs there are a number of considerations they have to weigh, because it isn't just a simple matter of jumping ship for them as elected officials. Unlike some who have left the party, they need to show respect to the constituents who elected them and make any change responsibly and honour those voters.

I, like many others, subscribe to principles and values not a party.

I think it's safe to say that the PLP has a base of people who are much more devout in their allegiance to 'the party'. I've never met UBP supporters with the kind of fervency you see among PLP supporters.

The people I talk to in the UBP get passionate when discussing issues and tend not to romanticise 'the party', which they simply see as an organisation to try and effect change. Parties are inherently flawed and imperfect and worshipping at the feet of a politician or a party doesn't make them perform better, it just makes them complacent.

The principles and values that the UBP ran on in 2007 (and 2003) need to continue to be advocated for, even if it is done through a different organisation - one which doesn't carry whatever negative stigma currently exists (some deserved, much not).

But that is a discussion that needs to be had methodically over time and with reflection. The issue of leadership follows on from that, it doesn't precede it.

Any new party can't be a UBP generated venture, because then it will just be the UBP all over again in the eyes of those who will never let their hatred of it go and only know how to ask voters to 'rise up' against something rather than vote for something.

I actually wonder what a lot of people will do if they won't have the UBP to kick around and obsess about. Some wouldn't know how how to construct an argument.

But, and this is important, new individuals in the community need to come forward and participate and take the lead, and some (not all) current UBP MPs can be involved.

Ultimately, if this is what's necessary, it's a good thing.

Contrary to what many of the critics believe, it won't break too many hearts - some yes, but nowhere near all - among those who've supported the UBP to see another option arise.

A reader writes on my post today about the UBP taking their time selecting a leader:

Don't rise to the bait, Christian! No one would know the PLP blog existed if you didn't publicise its demented and entirely self-serving content. It's really not worth either your time or your energy to try and counter the provocations of a group that has taken up permanent residence in a locale where all of the moral and logical polarities have been reversed, where all of the normal political imperatives have become extinct.

Well yes, normally I do ignore it, but I'm overwhelmingly bored with it all lately as the dialogue on this island is so shallow and mindless, so I was feeling a little punchy. Forgive me.

I mean, they're still talking about Michael Dunkley for crying out loud. I guess the despair at the lack of an Opposition Leader is that they don't know who to direct the fire at.

Typically, because people pay way too much attention to my ramblings, there was a terribly predictable rapid fire response about 'my bitter tirade' over there and then the far too serious Jonathon at Catch A Fire weighed in.

As I told Jonathon at Catch a Fire, do you have to turn in your sense of humour when you take out a PLP membership?

Sometimes I really wonder.

I wasn't defending the UBP, I was stating the obvious: not having finalised their leadership selection is no big deal with Parliament being out and being 4 weeks post-election.

So here's a few things people should have figured out about me by now but evidently some have not:

Firstly, I am a complete wise-ass. Secondly, I'm a complete wise ass. Thirdly, I'm a complete wise ass.

I swear that 95% of my wise cracks are interpreted way too seriously by PLP die hards.

Maybe I'll have to insert an identifier when I'm just joking around or pointing out the ridiculous by being ridiculous while making a point.

Politics would be unbearable if we can't laugh at the absurdity of it all at times. And the one thing I know for sure is that in Bermuda, too many politicians (and their supporters) take themselves far too seriously.

Back to boredom for awhile I guess.

To channel Seinfeld's Soup Nazi: "No jokes for you."

The UBP have launched their YouTube channel, and added a section to their website with video content.

I've included the first three clips below, introducing some of their candidates in some of the key battleground areas. I won't be posting each parties ads over the course of the campaign, just the ones from both parties that are interesting:

Team UBP

The Voices of Warwick

The Voices of St. George's

The Gazette today published further comments from Michael Dunkley on the Tillman Darrell incident.

The thing that they neglected to say is that he was asking them to publish his comments in full from the original interview. I thought that he could have said more. Evidently he did.

Here was his request to the Gazette, which he sent to me:

While my comments in the paper in connection with this story are correct they are not complete as a very important part of my conversation with the reporter was omitted from the newspaper coverage. At the start of our conversation I made it very clear that I do not support the use of violence as a way to resolve a conflict between individuals. This was conveyed to Mr. Darrell during our discussion of this matter. While it is at times easy to justify an act of violence based on trying circumstances we must do all we can as a community to lower the incidence of violence. I hope we can live and learn from each incident and make some real progress. Thank you for the clarification.

Damn pro-UBP Royal Gazette.

Ok. Let me start with the obvious and get that out of the way before the hysterics predictably start to scream:

Tillman Darrell of the UBP was completely wrong to strike someone as he today admits he did during a recent dispute (and I hope he had his comments vetted by a lawyer, although if he's talking to the press like that I imagine he didn't).

I do however hear his frustration:

"It seems to be a situation where black men who join the UBP get more grief from black members of the community," he said. "And sometimes that includes threats."

But that doesn't excuse his behaviour (and I'm not sure that self defense will work in this one). I understand his frustration with the vicious smears and efforts to alienate many UBP candidates and supporters from their communities and intimidate others from joining, but he should have restrained himself.

This incident however isn't that simple. It speaks to a larger problem.

Firstly, what is it with MPs and fighting?

The PLP was silent on their MP Glenn Blakeney who was accused of assaulting ZBM reporter Gary Moreno in front of the Deputy Governor, although he was ultimately acquitted.

Secondly, the UBPs Maxwell Burgess got in a scuffle (allegedly), although charges were ultimately dropped.

Thirdly, and most significantly I believe, Dr. Brown, the Premier of Bermuda - in Parliament - threatened to physically assault the UBP's Grant Gibbons for comments that he claimed he'd made about his wife.

Let me say that again: A sitting Premier threatened to physically assault a member of the Opposition in the Legislature - in a pre-written speech - yet the PLP's website is full of faux outrage about Tillman Darrell:

Violence must not be tolerated anywhere in Bermuda, but, especially from those who aspire to leadership. It is simply unacceptable for an aspiring MP, someone who is supposed to work across the political divide to deliver for Bermuda, to resort to violent attacks against those who disagree with him.

and ends with (in bold)

It's shocking that Mr. Dunkley, a man who aspires to be Premier of Bermuda, refuses to condemn politically motivated violence.

And let's not forget the PLP's Calvin Smith who said this in his apologist piece for the Premier's disgraceful speech:

If Dr. Gibbons understood anything about black Bermudian men, he should have known that negative comments about women important to us is a direct invitation to a physical encounter. Yet this is what he threatened by making unkind remarks about the wife of Dr. Brown."

So why is it different for Tillman Darrell? I would have thought that he was simply taking the Premier's advice after someone made comments that were a 'direct invitation to a physical encounter'.

Michael Dunkley may not have adequately condemned it for some (although I also thought the PLP believed that unless you're charged and convicted of something you're 'exonerated'), but the current Premier actually promoted violence not long ago, and his followers defended it as a reasonable response to political disputes.

This selective outrage is why so many people can't stand politics and politicians.

When the highest public official endorses physical violence to settle political disputes, it's no wonder that others see it as okay as well; either aspiring politicians or those who settle their scores by shooting someone (who was wearing a bullet proof vest).

This has been building for awhile. Not long after that speech by Dr. Brown in Parliament, someone who is not at all partisan but very shrewd, commented to me that they felt that the event in Parliament was so unprecedented that it would forever change the dynamic in Bermuda; that the leader of the country had set a tone that authorized increased racial hostility in the community and physical and verbal violence to settle disputes and that that would be contagious.

And look where we are today.

Leadership comes from the top. Words have consequences; especially when they come from the leader of the country. If you condemn Tillman Darrell's actions, which I do, you must also condemn Dr. Brown, which I do (all the time actually).

I'll await that item on the PLP's website patiently.

The United Bermuda Party has responded to last night's vitriol that was the launch of the PLP's campaign:

I am sorry that the PLP have taken to the low road at the outset of their campaign. Personal attacks and mudslinging are not what this country wants to hear.

What Bermudians want to hear is what political parties are going to do to make their lives better.

We have a lot of people in this country right now, every day, struggling to stay afloat, struggling to get by.

They want solutions and answers. They don’t want name calling and character bashing.

Mr. Simmons must be very careful the way he calls names and categorizes people. Trying to destroy people publicly is low and does not advance anyone’s understanding of how this island can be made a better place.

Shawn Crockwell made a mistake early in his life, he admitted it and he paid for it.

He has earned his way back to become a citizen who is committed to serving people.

We’re very proud of Shawn, so much so that we elected him chairman of the party.

My colleagues and I will stand by Shawn anytime, anywhere.

We will defend him anytime, anywhere.

He is a good man. He is a positive force, who wants to make this island a better place. He is working hard like the rest of us in the UBP to make this island work better for its citizens.

Full statement here.

I've uploaded UBP Leader Michael Dunkley's statement on the BHC to YouTube. If you'd rather read it the full release is here.

Dispatches from the front lines:

Rumour has is that the PLP have yanked sitting MP George Scott (of construction worker scandal fame) for the return of El James in Constituency 27 at the next election.

Why?

From what I hear polling showed the UBP's Wayne Scott beating George Scott, which wouldn't surprise me. Wayne has been canvassing very hard in that constituency for well over a year, while George Scott and the PLP have been AWOL.

It remains to be seen whether El James will be able to make up for the lost ground, but if things are competitive in a seat like 27, which is currently a PLP seat won reasonably handily in 2003, then as I've been saying for the past several months, this election will be very competitive, despite what the boastful Premier and his followers would have you believe; hard working UBP candidates have some real opportunities to take seats away from the PLP.

If constituencies like 27, and Michael Dunkley's new seat in Smiths (where I hear Dr. Brown wanted to replace Patrice Minors but might have to begrudginlgy go with again as others don't want to run against Michael) are in play, the next few months will be very interesting.

The PLP have the advantage, as they are the incumbent party and represent the new establishment; but the UBP have every reason to be upbeat and see some real opportunity through one to one campaigning.

Every vote counts.

The Bermuda Sun editorialises as usual in their reporting today, this time on UBP leader Michael Dunkley:

[Dr. Brown's] nemesis, politically speaking, is dairy owner Michael Dunkley, an affluent man, who has attempted to downplay his privileged background by calling himself 'the milkman'.

Actually, I'll go out on a limb here and hazard a guess that "The Milkman" is probably because his family run Bermuda's dairy and their name is on the side of every milk carton in Bermuda.

And then there's the catch phrase of "The Milkman delivers". It designed to be memorable, not down play a reporter's prejudices.

There's privilege, and then there's hard work. Sometimes it's not easy to distinguish between the two, and sometimes one is used as a political device to cancel out the other.

I wouldn't call losing your father as a teenager and having to step into the family business by showing up at the dairy at 3AM privileged. I'd call that understanding the value of hard work and supporting your family. Two extremely appealing traits.

Let's leave the caricatures to the cartoonists and the opining to the editorial pages.

Perhaps a little surprisingly, but not entirely in light of the PLP's struggles to get candidates placed, Parliament looks set to resume tomorrow, and Michael Dunkley has announced the Shadow Cabinet:

Dunkley announces Shadow Cabinet line-up

United Bermuda Party Leader Michael Dunkley today announced the Shadow Cabinet for the new session of Parliament.

The Shadow Cabinet is:

• Party Leader Michael Dunkley – Public Safety
• Deputy Leader Patricia Gordon-Pamplin – Finance
• John Barritt – Legislative Reform & Justice
• Jon Brunson – Works & Engineering, Sports
• David Dodwell – Tourism
• Dr. Grant Gibbons – Education
• Louise Jackson – Health and Seniors
• Trevor Moniz – Labour and Immigration
• Suzann Roberts-Holshouser – Social Rehabilitation
• Senator E.T. (Bob) Richards – Telecommunications & Transportation
• Cole Simons – Environment
• Senator Gina Spence-Farmer – Community, Cultural Affairs and Race Relations
• Senator Kim Swan – Housing

In addition, to his Shadow responsibilities for Legislative Reform and Justice, Mr. Barritt remains Party Whip and House Leader.

Mr. Dunkley also announced that former Leader the Hon. Wayne L. Furbert has agreed to use his experience and skills to work with new candidates and to assist the party’s efforts to win the marginal constituencies.

“This is a particularly important undertaking and I appreciate Wayne’s commitment,” he said. “The election is near and all of us are focused on winning so that we can give this country a government that delivers.”

May 3, 2007

With the tug of war (see here and here) going on in the PLP between the existing candidates who don't want to move, and a Premier who's trying to put in place a loyal lineup of candidates of his choice (psst...there's only so many safe seats peeps - some of you have to actually work for it), the UBP have a great opportunity to make serious inroads on the ground, hitting the doorsteps while the PLP hopefuls jockey for the apple of Dr. Brown's eye.

Take constituency 27 for example, where the Gazette says the PLP is polling (who's conducting the polling?) 3 individuals with an existing candidate who probably doesn't want to move. All the while, the UBP's Wayne Scott has been aggressively walking the streets for a couple of years. In constituencies of 1,000 voters, that's what makes the difference.

This internal battle, which has the potential to get rather prolonged if people dig in, is in my mind the only real thing preventing the Premier from calling an election. He still holds the cards, in that the Government gets to pick the time that suits them most, and the PLP are the incumbent establishment party that won't be easy to knock-off, but these things can get messy if everyone doesn't play nice.

But if there's one thing that I know about Michael Dunkley (and Pat Gordon-Pamplin), it's that he understands the value of getting in front of the voters directly (Some UBP canvassers showed up on the doorstep of a house I was visiting on Saturday afternoon).

At the end of the day I expect the election campaign will be approached very differently by the two parties.

The PLP will run a Dr. Brown for President national campaign vilifying a segment of the community and indirectly asking people to vote in racial blocks (with a compliment of yes men hoping to ride his coattails), while the UBP will continue their on the ground/get in front of your constituents and show them you actually care who they are and will work for them strategy that is so important when these things will be won or lost by 10-50 votes.

Michael Dunkley and Pat Gordon-Pamplin have been announced as the leadership team of the UBP.

That's a pretty dynamic and hard working team with a good one-two punch.

Mike is without a doubt among the hardest working politicians in Bermuda with no tolerance for foot-dragging; so I expect the UBP to pick up the pace noticeably, almost immediately. If I know Mike, the first place that will be seen will be on the doorstep.

“We will put people first.”

A Statement by United Bermuda Party Leader Michael Dunkley, JP, MP

Good afternoon Ladies and Gentlemen,

Thank you for coming.

I want to take a moment upfront to note that our Deputy Leader Patricia Gordon-Pamplin is off the Island until the start of next week.

Pat and I will operate as a team and so I am going to keep my remarks brief with a view to more detailed statements of policy and direction in the near future.

Until then, I believe it is important to make a few points about who I am and where we should be heading

The first thing I want to say today is that I am proud to be the new leader of the United Bermuda Party.

I am proud that my colleagues saw fit to nominate me and I am proud to carry forward the banner of this great party.

I am also proud to follow in the footsteps of Wayne Furbert. I appreciate all that he has done for the party.

Leadership change can be messy, difficult affairs, so I want to take a moment to recognize the dignity with which Wayne stepped down and the fact that his parting words were about meeting the needs of the people.

It stands as the measure of the man, and so I salute Wayne and I look forward to working with him for better government; because better government is what we are all about in the United Bermuda Party, and better government is what this country needs right now.

Let there be no mistake. I believe this country is fast approaching a fork in the road where we either proceed together as one people, with respect for one another and living by the highest standards of democracy, or we proceed along a path of division, self-interest and intolerance.

The stakes are high, and so the United Bermuda Party will continue to demand something better for the people. It is important that we hold this government accountable for its misdeeds, its failings and its record of underachievement.

If you reward poor performance, poor performance will continue.

Poor government is what we have. It makes no difference whether you’re talking about education, public safety, housing, seniors, the environment or economic empowerment; this government has not met the needs of the people.

It makes no difference that the PLP elected a new leader in October. The Premier has tried hard to separate himself from his party’s record in power, but the longer he continues the clearer it is that he is part of the same exhausted group with no fresh ideas, no plan and apparently no direction.

***

Ladies and gentlemen, I believe there is a serious need to renew the meaning and purpose of government in Bermuda.

I believe there is a serious need to renew people’s faith in government.

As leader of the United Bermuda Party, I promise you that we will offer people the chance for that renewal.

How will we do that?

The first thing we will do is work hard to earn people’s trust.

My colleagues know that I am a guy who likes to roll up his sleeves and get to it.

My colleagues also know that I am a guy who expects everyone to kick in with the same level of commitment that I give, which is 100 per cent all the way. That’s just the way I am.

So I promise you that all of us in the United Bermuda Party will work hard for the people; day in, day out, 24/7.

Can someone tell Gwyneth that politics isn't high school. Picking a party leader and potential premier isn't something from an episode of Sweet Valley High.

"I remember specifically saying to him (Wayne), David Dodwell is not your friend. His response to me was ‘you don’t know what you are talking about’".

David is indeed Wayne's friend, one of his longest and closest, but he made the difficult choice to put the island's best interests above his friendship with Wayne, as did others. I know it was hard for them all, because Wayne is one of the nicest guys you'll ever meet.

And Michael Dunkley was never 'out to get Wayne'. Michael is the ultimate team player. That isn't to say he isn't without ambition and hungered to be leader, but Wayne's collapse in support was due to his own leadership faults.

And, did Gwyneth ever give a thought to how Wayne got to be party leader? By taking out his friend Grant Gibbons.

And she calls Wayne naive? Please.

Wayne Furbert's resignation speech:

The last couple of months have been challenging for the United Bermuda Party and especially me as its leader.

All of my life, all I have ever wanted, is what is best for the people of Bermuda.

I have worked day and night to make Bermuda a better place, reaching out to others and showing them that someone does care.

I am proud of who I am.

I also believe there is a season for everything:

A season to cry,

A season to lift up,

A season to tear down and

A season to let go.

This particular season for me has come to an end.

After a great deal of consideration and reflection with my friends and family, I have decided that the best way forward for the United Bermuda Party is for me to step aside.

Therefore, I am tendering my resignation as leader of the United Bermuda Party, effective March 31, 2007.

I want to emphasize that I take this step for one reason only:

I want the best for the people of Bermuda, and with all this uncertainty it cannot happen.

The United Bermuda Party is not perfect.

But for all its faults, I believe in my heart that it offers this Island the best hope for a unified and positive future.

Although I am disappointed by this turn of events, I am comforted by the fact that I have always put Bermuda first, that I have the support of my family and that I am guided by a higher wisdom.

You see we have this treasure called Bermuda, and the reason I fight on is because of it and not because of my own self-gratification.

Although I have been troubled on every side, I am not distressed.

Although I am perplexed, I am not in despair.

I have been persecuted, but I know that I have not been forsaken.

I have been cast down but I have not been destroyed.

I know that many of my family, friends and supporters are hurting.

Many of them have called me and said that they are angry, and that they want to get even by not supporting the United Bermuda Party.

I ask you not to let your anger cause you to seek revenge.

If you wish to get even, then get even by showing those individuals that you are bigger than they are, and that you do not play by their rules.

If you wish to get even, then help me heal this country.

If you wish to get even, then help me tear down the remaining walls of racial discrimination, bigotry and intolerance.

If you wish to get even, then help me build a healthier country for all our people, so that our children can live free and in equality.

If you want to get even, then live out the dream of Dr. Martin Luther King by standing with me and saying hate only begets hate.

The cause to fight on is greater than Wayne Furbert.

Keep my dream alive by helping me to fight for homes for those who are homeless.

Keep my dream alive by helping me fight for lower health care costs for our seniors.

Keep my dream alive by helping me turn around the education system for our children.

Keep my dream alive by helping me improve our democratic process, and making parliamentarians more accountable to the people.

I look forward to the opportunities ahead to continue to serve the people of Bermuda and the people of Hamilton West.

My faith in this country and our people is as strong and as positive as ever. I love Bermuda, and I will always be ready and willing to serve.

I would like to leave you with one thought that has always carried me through difficult times, and it is from The Good Book.

“And we know that all things work together for the GOOD to them that love the Lord, and are called according to His purpose.”

Whatever my future, thou has taught me to say it is well; it is well with my soul.

For the last time as Leader of The Opposition, I would like say:

May God bless you and may God bless Bermuda.

Thank you.

March 29, 2007

Wayne Furbert has announced that he is resigning as UBP leader effective tomorrow.

More to come when I know it.

Just as a quick follow-up to my post on today's poll, someone pointed out to me something that hasn't got any play in the Gazette's analysis (not online for some reason) of the results: while Wayne Furbert's favourability has bounced back to September 2006 levels, his unfavourability exceeds his favourability:

:: 37.9% have a favourable impression
:: 42.1% have an unfavourable impression

So while the headline is "Furbert's popularity surges", the more relevant stat is that despite his bounce back in favourability, more people have a negative opinion than a positive one.

That is no formula for success.

Regardless, the poll doesn't change much, Wayne's time is up.

As confirmation of why Wayne, as nice a guy as he is and as much as I like him, just isn't cut out to be party leader and a potential Premier, it's this line from the Bermuda Sun today:

When we spoke to him by phone, he sang a song, said he was all right, but also said: "My fate is not in my hands."

He "sang a song." Time for a change.

Two things come into play today on the UBP's leadership saga:

1) The Royal Gazette runs poll results showing a bounce back in favourability for Wayne Furbert, but the numbers still aren't that great. [More on the poll later. Contrary to the campaign to present the PLP under Dr. Brown as overwhelmingly popular and the UBP in total disarray, the PLP's lead is barely outside of the margin of error.]

2) UBP MP Neville Darrell has come out backing Maxwell Burgess for leader. While the rule in politics is to expect the unexpected, I really can't see this one coming to fruition after Maxwell was dismissive of his UBP colleagues only a couple of months ago and undermined the party's re-election prospects with his comments. That's not quite the way to generate support for a leadership challenge. But it does make things a little messier.

Regardless, it's time to wrap this up. This can't go on into the weekend. There needs to be a resolution by Friday.

But I just can't see Wayne hanging on. I think they're past that point. The question now is who will take over.

The slow-mo leadership challenge at the UBP continues, with a meeting last night of MPs and the Party Chairperson ending with no definitive resolution.

I said a few days ago, when the current challenge became public, that the MPs should end the uncertainty and either replace Wayne or not. I still believe that to be the case, particularly with an election almost certain to be called within the next 2-3 months, however now that the process has been set in motion, a couple more days isn't going to make much of a difference in the grand scheme of things. It's important to get this one right.

The past few years have seen any number of leadership challenges in both the PLP and UBP, which probably is ultimately a good thing as the parties work through some albeit messy internal matters, with the UBP trying not to do it in (too) public of a way. Watching the Jennifer Smith/Alex Scott/Ewart Brown battle play out publicly made for great spectator sport but plenty of hard feelings.

What UBP Chairperson Shawn Crockwell said today is true: the UBP's leadership process is more difficult as an Opposition, because their numbers are smaller than when they were the Government. With a disproportionately low number of seats versus popular vote (down to 13 after Jamahl Simmons' departure) out of a reduced Parliament (single-seats took it to 36), the numbers involved in selecting the leader are quite small and in the absence of a clear successor it makes it hard for one person to command a meaningful majority.

Unlike the PLP which had a clear potential challenger to Jennifer Smith (current Premier Dr. Brown), the UBP don't have a clear front-runner but a number of people who would be good leaders - if they wanted the position (something that is often overlooked when putting forward the potential successors).

And as we saw with the PLP and Dr. Brown, dislodging a party leader can take time and can need a gentle touch, not brute force as Dr. Brown's wing tried in 2003 to poor results.

While the results under Wayne's leadership haven't been great, he is a longstanding and valuable member of the party who deserves to be treated with respect and dignity in any challenge to his leadership.

So while some have suggested a single challenger should step up and directly challenge, that's not really the UBP way - and if there is one lesson that the UBP MPs probably learned over the past few months, it's that if someone feels mistreated then they can cause a whole lotta hurt (Maxwell Burgess).

So in my mind they're rightly moving slowly but deliberately towards resolution, which while seen as a 'split' may not be that absolute.

People who are drawn to the UBP tend to be collaborative not combative (versus Dr. Brown's adversarial approach both inside and outside of his party); they work to build consensus even on controversial topics - evolution not revolution - an approach that I think tends to ultimately produce the best results.

Collaboration is the culture of the UBP since its inception, it had to be in drawing together historically divergent groups; the PLP's more monolithic base proposed revolution while the UBP's coalition proposed more gradual change ("Make haste slowly", a UBP leader's phrase that Alex Scott took a liking to in his waning weeks).

So I'm not entirely surprised things are unfolding the way they are. It's taking a little longer than some would like (although Wayne never had a strong position), and does offer the opportunity for the press to feast on the apparent indecision (even the so-called "UBP-owned" Royal Gazette).

But I fully expect this to resolved in the next several days with a new leader, and if that's what it takes to keep Wayne on board as a candidate for the next election then it's worth it.

Today's installment from Matthew Taylor's 3 month serial on the UBP leadership saga makes it pretty clear that time has run out for Wayne Furbert.

You don't have to be able to read between the lines to see that.

I imagine he won't last out the weekend.

I'm disappointed for Wayne as I know that this was a position he personally aspired to, and that he genuinely wanted to do good things for Bermuda and cut through the polarisation.

And like any party leader Wayne has his deficiencies, which have been well discussed, but he never seemed to grow into the position and exert the strong hand that was needed over the past 6 months.

So while I'm saddened for Wayne personally, I'm optimistic for the party.

If today's story by Matthew Taylor in the Royal Gazette is accurate, I have only one thing to say to the UBP MPs:

Either pull the trigger or put down the weapon.

And when you do decide, can someone let Matthew know once and for all. He's having a ball over all the uncertainty.

Uncertainty is bad. End it now, either way.

Can you blame people for thinking that politicians disagree over anything and conduct themselves like children when PLP Chairman David Burt engages in playground sniping over the UBPs revamped website?

Accepting donations online is something that the PLP will do when we update our website. Like most things, we’ll do it better than the UBP.

Like housing, crime, education...whenever they get around to it they'll do it better. So there.

But even funnier, is this bit:

"What I do find interesting is that their hastily assembled solution still asks people for the state and zip code and requires them to submit their ‘employer’ to comply with Federal Laws."

Now, how would Mr. Burt know that, unless he'd either tried to join the party, volunteer or donate online? Hmmm. Maybe the PLP Chairman is a double agent who secretly supports the UBP? Welcome to the fold. All are welcome Mr. Burt.

And another gem:

"...he was ‘disappointed’ there was no blog feature included...He indicated that the PLP’s youth wing called Progressive Minds had beat the UBP to the punch in that regard launching a youth spirited blog in the past few days."

They have a days old blog...congratulations. Welcome to 2001.

Better late than never I guess. I suppose the UBP could borrow one of Mr. Burt's lines: "Like most things, we’ll do it better than the PLP."

This "nanny nanny boo boo" response to the reporter's questions reveals a strange hyper-sensitivity, or perhaps an inferiority complex.

Sure the UBP's site is bare bones at this point, but the PLP's isn't all that impressive either, and never has been.

Does the 'P' in PLP stands for petty?

The UBP's new website is now live.

I had a quick perusal and while I expect a lot more content to come, they've streamlined it to be focused on candidates, issues and the plan for the next election...which is all that really counts at this stage.

You can also join and donate online.

So get out your credit cards and go take a look.

Below is the speech delivered by UBP Leader Wayne Furbert tonight, in rebuttal to Dr. Brown's speech of Monday night.

I thought it both a good speech, hitting on all the right areas, but also that it was also the best speech I've heard Wayne deliver. He did a great job by anyone's standards, speaking clearly and with conviction. I must admit that I thought the speech he delivered a few weeks ago to deal with the UBP's internal problems was a mess and delivered poorly, so I didn't know what to expect tonight, but I was very pleasantly surprised.

What a difference a couple of weeks, and being back on the offensive, makes.

I would hope that the UBP can use this event and the budget debate which kicks off Friday, to move forward and put the last 6 weeks of sensationalised and unsupported accusations behind them.

My fellow Bermudians,

Earlier this week the Premier spoke to the country on his first 100 days in office.

The reality is that this government has been in power for 3,000 days not 100 days.

That's nearly nine years to make real headway on the problems facing the country.

Nine years when it has had the power to build affordable housing, nine years to ensure that our children get the education they need,

nine years to come down hard on crime and nine years to do more for our struggling seniors.

So ladies and gentlemen, I feel it is my duty to invite you to look past the "pop and sizzle" that the Premier serves up so well.

When I heard his address on Monday, I was reminded of the quotation:

"Oh what a web we weave, when we conspire to deceive."

Ladies and Gentlemen,

I ask you to see the Government's record for what it is.

Let me talk first about housing.

The Premier said he recognized the challenge of dealing with the issue of affordable housing.

We applaud him for that, but we know from experience that recognition of a problem does not mean action.

The Government was first elected in 1998 on a commitment to provide housing.

What we got instead was a nine-year housing crisis; years when people who could have been housed were not.

Against this background the Premier told us of a new task force that has identified derelict properties that might be made into homes, and projects where groundbreaking will soon happen.

Ladies and Gentlemen, it is not good enough.

They have had nine years to get a grip on this problem.

We need action.

***

The most serious issue facing this country is the state of our public education system.

All of us have watched with alarm as our schools graduated fewer and fewer students.

Our concerns were underscored last week by reports showing two thirds of our young men and more than half of our young women "at risk" because of low literacy skills.

The problem in education is one of deep consequence for our society.

The failure to equip our young with basic skills holds dire implications for their lives.

The public has known for years that the problem cuts deeply, and we have called many times for dramatic, comprehensive action to give our young people the education they need to succeed.

We welcome the Government's commitment to a "full-scale" review of the system, and I want to assure you that my colleagues and I will keep close watch on this review to make sure the country gets the answers it needs.

At the same we must register our serious concern that this is one more study.

We've had nine years of studies. We need action. Our children need action.

***

Law and order is another area of deep concern.

The Premier proudly describes his new Minister of Public Safety as "keen to address the long-standing issues" surrounding public safety.

We welcome the enthusiasm, but note that issues of law and order became long-standing problems under the Government.

The country has witnessed the advance of new and disturbing trends in crime, including the emergence of gang-style violence.

People are fearful.

They are disturbed by the sense that as a society we are heading in the wrong direction.

These concerns were reinforced by reports last week showing the final three months of 2006 as the most violent since Police began recording statistics.

In our view, the Government is spinning its wheels on law and order.

We were struck by the Premier's remark during Monday's address that he had initiated discussions with the Governor to find new creative ways to fight crime.

This is exactly the same thing we were told in a meeting six months ago by another Premier.

Once again, the Premier promises a con-versation, but after nine years we need action.

***

Perhaps no other area of Monday's address was spun better than tourism.

The Premier should be proud that visitor arrivals were up in 2006, but it is important to keep some perspective on the situation.

The 2006 results were driven by an unprecedented reliance on cruise ship visitors, not air arrivals, and they follow the worst five-year performance since the start of mass tourism in the mid 1960s.

There is a long way to go before we get this vital industry out of the woods.

We welcome the interest of Jumeirah and the Ritz-Carlton hotel groups in Bermuda.

Our tourism industry needs new hotel operations, but we caution people not to get carried away by the Premier's rhetoric.

Too many hotel companies have come and gone in recent years without a room being built.

I am reminded that just last year the Premier decided not to extend an arrangement with the world-famous Four Seasons hotel group which wanted to develop the Club Med site in St. George's.

The circumstances of that bust-up remain a mystery, but we think he should have done whatever was necessary to get that hotel group to St. George's.

Think of what a Four Seasons operation would have meant to the Old Town.

Instead of walking away from the table, the Premier should have walked the extra mile for the people of St. George's.

***

We welcome the Premier's concerns about global warming and that Bermuda must play its part in addressing the problems of pollution.

But we do not think this government really cares about the environment.

The five-year review of the Bermuda Development Plan has not been conducted since the Government was elected in 1998.

This neglect has left the country facing the current wave of hyper-development with a Bermuda Plan that was put together more than 15 years ago.

It means there is no up-to-date strategy in place that tells us the best way forward.

The current rush by developers for Special Development Orders tells us the system is broken.

This is a shame because we are in a vacuum facing crucial decisions that will affect the Island for generations to come.

We are not giving ourselves the best chance for smart decisions.

We are not giving ourselves a chance for smart growth.

***

The last area I want to address is the Premier's decision to shut down the Medical Clinic.

The Premier wants its patients to be able to visit the doctor of their choice.

It sounds like a good thing, but we are concerned that closing the clinic will create unnecessary challenges for the very people it is supposed to benefit.

There are no guarantees they will be taken by the doctor of their choice.

Many are fully booked and not taking new patients. Many of their offices are not accessible.

We urge the Premier to reconsider.

The clinic is a one-stop shop for its patients.

It works for them.

Talk to them, and use their answers to guide you to a better decision.

***

My fellow Bermudians,

One of the strangest aspects of life in this country is that despite being known as one of the most prosperous places on the planet there is so much anxiety and concern for the future.

My colleagues and I have been talking with many of you and we understand your concerns.

I understand that there are strong feelings about the direction this country is heading.

I know that many of you sense we are fast-approaching a crossroads between what we are and what we might become.

I know you are concerned that the gap between the haves and the have-nots is widening, and that the struggle to make ends meet is not getting easier.

I know you are concerned about overdevelopment.

I know that many of you are concerned that materialism is eroding cherished values and our community spirit.

I know you want problems solved.

I share your concerns and I want you to know that my colleagues share your concerns.

We are with you.

Over the next weeks we will be coming forward with more of our plans to build a better Bermuda.

It will be a Bermuda that provides equal opportunity for all citizens, and gives them the chance to reach their full potential.

It will be a Bermuda where people can trust their government to do what is right.

It will be a Bermuda that ensures our success as a country is shared among the many, not the few.

It will be a Bermuda that protects our heritage and our future.

It will be a Bermuda that brings us closer together as one people.

Whether you are a parent with a child in school, or a single mother juggling too much every day, or someone paying too much in rent,
or a victim of crime, or a senior struggling to make it work, you deserve better than what you've been getting.

So tonight I would like to leave you with this thought:

The United Bermuda Party will stay the course. We will be there for you.

We know that talk by itself does not move a country forward.

If given the chance, we will get the job done.

Thank you for your time,

God bless all of you; and take care.

Over at Bermuda Network News, Walton Brown (cousin of Dr. Brown and PLP supporter) has a run-down on the PLP's Dr. Brown and the UBP's Wayne Furbert.

I think he oversimplifies things in his assessment of Wayne and his ascension to leader, but his polling indicates Wayne's support at 20% and predicts he won't last much longer.

In today's interview Max Burgess says alot that I agree with (ie. the chicken and egg quote and the next election being a referendum on the UBP's future rather than the PLP's desirability - a point I made when interpreting the last poll (last sentence)).

I can't help but note that the article ended with what can only be read as a very ironic position with respects to the party re-establishing a black caucus (a concept I have no problem with in principle):

He said under Sir Edward Richards the UBP had to form a black caucus to get black issues on the agenda.

“In some ways, history repeats itself. I believe the UBP is heading that way – to have a black caucus to ensure the needs of black Bermuda are in the fore of the party’s minds.”

Firstly, the majority of the UBP caucus is already black, so I'm not sure what a separate black caucus will achieve that couldn't already be.

Secondly, Max suggests that a black caucus is needed to 'ensure the needs of black Bermuda are in the fore of the party’s minds'.

Here's the problem with that: Max stated sentences earlier that white leaders had been more progressive on the issue of race than blacks in the party:

He said the UBP had moved backwards on the race issue since switching from Grant Gibbons to Wayne Furbert.

“Under Grant Gibbons the question of race and what we could reasonably be expected to do about it was on the agenda and was being worked on.

“There were committees doing work on it. In some ways that’s the irony of the UBP and its history.

“White leaders have historically made measured strides, but some strides in this whole area of race, and perhaps with the exception of Sir John Swan who had varying degrees of success on the subject, black leaders have not done as well.”

Seems contradictory does it not?

And the beat goes on.

Max throws the cat back among the pigeons.

Just out from the UBP:

United Bermuda Party Leader Wayne Furbert today announced changes to his Shadow Cabinet for the next session of Parliament.

The new appointments are as follows:

Deputy Leader Michael Dunkley – Shadow Minister for Public Safety
Mr. John Barritt – Shadow Minister for Legislative Reform & Justice (with responsibility for Attorney General)
Ms. Suzann Roberts-Holshouser – Shadow Minister for Social Rehabilitation
Mr. Trevor Moniz – Shadow Minister for Labour and Immigration
Senator E.T. (Bob) Richards – Shadow Minister for Telecommunications and Transport.
Senator Gina Spence-Farmer – Shadow Minister for Community, Cultural Affairs and Race Relations.[i]

Mr. Furbert said:

“I am pleased to announce these changes because each of them strikes an excellent balance of experience, knowledge and personal interest.

“Michael, for example, has shown all of us that he is a voice for law and order in Bermuda. As Shadow Minister for Public Safety he will push this government hard for safer streets and safer neighbourhoods – something I know we all want.

“John Barritt has been the architect of our programme to restore ‘good governance’ to Bermuda. A lawyer of 20-years standing, John possesses an excellent legal mind and a passion for parliamentary reform, social justice and fairness. I think he is the perfect choice for these important responsibilities.

“I am particularly pleased to appoint Suzann Roberts-Holshouser as our spokesman for Social Rehabilitation. Suzann naturally expresses the compassion and understanding for the problems people face, perhaps better than anyone in Parliament. She also brings to the table a tough, no-nonsense attitude that will be essential in challenging a government that has yet to bring about meaningful social improvements, let alone rehabilitation.

“I know Trevor Moniz will be a superb critic for Labour and Immigration. In addition to possessing an excellent legal understanding of these areas of public life, I don’t think there is anyone sharper when it comes to identifying the inconsistencies and inequities in the application of our laws and regulations.

“I am also pleased to appoint Senator E.T. (Bob) Richards as our new spokesman for transportation. Bob possesses a keen eye, an analytical mind and common sense; all of which well equip him to serve the people of Bermuda in one of the more complex areas of Island life.

“Gina is well-known in the community for her involvement in cultural activities. I believe culture will play a significant role in building better relations among our people. Gina also knows what it is to be down and then pick to herself up. She has an irrepressible, positive outlook on life and a deep faith which I think are essential qualities for building a better Bermuda.”

The full Shadow Cabinet is:

Public Safety and Deputy Leader - Michael Dunkley
Finance – Patricia Gordon-Pamplin
Legislative Reform & Justice – John Barritt
Education – Neville Darrell
Seniors and Health – Louise Jackson
Environment – Cole Simons
Social Rehabilitation – Suzann Roberts-Holshouser
Tourism - David Dodwell
Works & Engineering, Sports – Jon Brunson
Community, Cultural Affairs and Race Relations – Senator Gina Spence-Farmer
Telecommunications & Transportation - Senator E.T. (Bob) Richards
Housing – Senator Kim Swan

“This is a strong team,” Mr. Furbert said. “Going forward, it will be tough-minded, fair and always guided by the need to give the people of this country the government it deserves.”

February 6, 2007

--------------------------

[i] Previously, Mr. Dunkley was Shadow Minister without portfolio, John Barritt remains Party Whip and House Leader, Ms Holshouser was responsible for the concerns of women, children and family; Mr. Moniz Justice and Sen. Richards, Telecommunications.

I don't take any pleasure in saying this, and I understand that this is before the courts, but UBP leader Wayne Furbert must conclusively rebut today's headline in the Royal Gazette that he falsified a contract to secure financing for his home renovations, or resign.

I understand that Wayne says he'll be vindicated, but the allegation in court yesterday cannot hang out there. Wayne's lawyer must address it legally, but Wayne must address it politically. I'm sure the legal aspect is his immediate concern, but it has to happen.

You cannot have a political party leader with that allegation against him.

Granted, it might be a little early, but I've been keeping an eye on the Letters to the Editor page of the Gazette since the UBP's internal turmoil began a couple of weeks ago, and I've been struck by how few letters there have been on the topic. I spoke with the Editor this morning and he confirmed that he hasn't received many, while they keep piling in on Southlands and the SDO controversy.

So far I can recall three, being Guilden Gilbert, Dr. Eva Hodgson (today) and Kath Bell (former PLP candidate if I recall) who would not be considered representative of the average voter.

The columnists have also been pretty busy but that's again to be expected.

Typically, the debate has been hot and heavy over at Limey in Bermuda, and I've been writing about it here, but neither forum is representative of the casual observer. Funnily enough, the site has become saturated with pro-PLP posters who are crucifying the UBP while simultaneously decrying the blog as a pro-UBP forum.

I'd characterise the critics there (mostly - but not all) as true believers and PLP ground troops, sensing a political opportunity and going for it. Again, not representative of the average voter.

Other than that there hasn't been much; lots of headlines for sure, but it makes me wonder if people have become so exhausted with race in Bermuda politics that they're just tuning this out to a certain extent?

Most of the people who approach me about the topic, don't really take sides, but come across as just plain old cynical about it.

I'm sure there are other interpretations of the quiet (email me yours), but the general silence in the Letters to the Editor is unusual and interesting.

I listened to John Barritt on Shirley Dill's radio show today, and I thought that John did a very good job of addressing some of the accusations currently out there, as well as describing political life as a member of the UBP.

I'm not going to rehash the whole thing, but I thought that the most interesting and revealing exchange was when Dr. Eva Hodgson called in.

Dr. Hodgson, as she usually does, gave a pretty good summation of the problems that the UBP - and whites generally - have in criticising the PLP. I probably won't say this as eloquently as Dr. Hodgson, but she pointed out that she 'feels sorry for white liberals like Mr. Barritt', because when whites are critical of blacks, what blacks hear is not the criticism but an 'echo' in their heads telling them that they're only being criticised because they are black.

Sound familiar? Jamahl's branch say he wasn't performing so they wanted to replace him, Jamahl says they wanted him out because he's black.

Gwyneth says she was being challenged internally and interpreted it as racial as her critics were white.

This goes back to what I've written about previously: perception is incredibly important; the actions of whites are often misinterpreted as racial when they're not.

But, here's the kicker.

Mr. Barritt, specifically asked Dr. Hodgson this:

What would Dr. Hodgson suggest he change in order to prevent this misunderstanding when criticising Government's policies? How should he approach this going forward? How can he be critical of policies/programs that the PLP are presenting without invoking this 'echo'. How should he couch his critique so as to raise valid concerns without them getting swatted aside as racial?

And here's the problem:

Dr. Hodgson unfortunately never responded to that invitation, an important invitation I thought and one of someone reaching out to say "What can I do to stop this?" Instead, Dr. Hodgson went off on a tangent, an interesting one, but not a productive one if you're trying to change the racial dynamic of Bermuda politics.

Therein lies the problem.

Maybe Dr. Hodgson doesn't have an answer? Or maybe she's hung up on identifying the problem as opposed to remedying it.

But for me, that summed up the catch 22 that we find ourselves in in Bermuda politics.

We can't have a situation where a self-defined 'black Government' is immune to criticism. But that's the implication of marginalising whites and telling them that all of their criticism is racist.

That's what I mean when I say that race is better as a political issue to the PLP than simply an issue. If they can perpetuate this 'echo', then they become immune to criticism and accountability.

The number of times I've been critical of the PLP Government's actions and policies, only to be told that my criticism is racial in nature and therefore should be dismissed out of hand, are too numerous to count.

Maybe it's me, but doesn't it seem like the only difference between the UBP's current discord, and the PLP's 3 year battle between Jennifer Smith's camp and Ewart Brown's camp is that there are whites in the UBP...hence it must be racially driven.

Another example:

When young candidates are fast tracked in the UBP (ie. Jamahl Simmons, or even Shawn Crockwell as the new chair) it's called window dressing, whereas when Premier Brown installed 3 young and completely politically inexperienced individuals in the Senate, it's called a stroke of brilliance and a commitment to the youth.

In fact, I'd hazard a guess that almost all of the people who decry the UBP fastracking any black inidividual through the party would support affirmative action policies in the workplace.

What's the difference?

Those examples are why I become so frustrated - and am convinced race as an issue is not suited to the political domain - is that it's not uncommon to hear whites described as inherently racist; by birth, by nature, by nurture, by definition, by their DNA, or all of the above.

Any action that involves whites is too often ascribed to race in Bermuda.

How can that be a starting point for a discussion of the many layers of privilege in this community, be it white privilege, or dare I raise it...black privilege? Privilege exists both between and within the races.

With that atmosphere, is it any wonder that we can't progress on this issue, and that more and more whites feel that they can't enter the discussion in good faith?

And there you have it, as I predicted Thursday.

The core of Gwyneth's complaint against the UBP is that she didn't get appointed to the Senate or get a safe seat. Get to the back of the line, that's a longstanding gripe of every politician who wants a fast track to the top:

When she talks about not being allowed to grow politically she says: "I'm talking about not being allowed to progress to a level to the extent of eventually getting in the House [of Assembly].

"After rising through the ranks from volunteer to party chairman, it would seem logical that I would aspire to become a Member of Parliament. I had paid my dues and earned my spurs. It seemed to me a natural progression."

Ms Rawlins said she applied for a Senate seat three times when Grant Gibbons was the leader. "On each occasion the seat was given to somebody with less political experience," she said.

The excuse she was given is that the people were chosen because they could provide the best continuity at the time and they needed the exposure. "I never quite understood that," she said.

Ms Rawlins was disappointed but she got on with the job, thinking of the bigger picture - what was best for the party.

Snubbed for a Senate seat, she thought she might be given what would be considered a more winnable constituency seat in the 2003 election. Instead she got Warwick South Central, which was won by Ewart Brown who went on to become the leader of the country.

"I began then to recognize that I would not be allowed to grow politically in that environment," she said, adding that her goal throughout was to serve in the House, where she could have a real say in the decision-making process.

Whatever happened to taking on a tough seat and turning it your way?

I can understand why Gwyn would be disappointed and frustrated, but there's only 3 Opposition Senate seats available and a handful of safe seats since single seat constituencies came into effect. Everyone wants a safe seat, that's the oldest complaint in the book. Feelings are going to get hurt. That's inevitable. But racial? That's a red herring.

Erwin Adderley (black) gave up a safe seat to Jamahl to fight a tougher seat in Pembroke and got hammered.

Tim Smith (white), moved from a Paget safe seat and lost by 8 votes against Renee Webb in a tough Hamilton area.

David Dodwell (white) moved into a very tough area in Southampton - and won - after being in a safe area until 2003.

I ask you, is this racism or someone whose personal ambition didn't get met fast enough?

God I love the PLP hysterics over at Limey in Bermuda. They're all up in arms, aghast that I might suggest that there is some PLP influence in the timing of 3 UBP resignations in a few weeks and some harsh accusations by the departing members.

Say it's not true?

Don't be so naive people. I've got a causeway I could sell to a few folks - that is if they're being serious and not mischievous as I expect.

For the record, I write a lot here about a lot of the hot button issues. I'm not going to repeat myself endlessly. For those who want to foam at the mouth that I can't possibly comprehend that there might be racism (or racists) in the UBP, I direct you to this post and this quote, which is one of many where I have acknowledged that the UBP membership - like the rest of Bermuda - can display racist attitudes at times:

The UBP has a much harder job than the PLP. The UBP have to bring together diverse groups of people who have different experiences and perspectives. This can be contentious. Are there racist attitudes among what Jamahl decribes as a vocal minority in the UBP? Yes.

The PLP on the other hand are monolithic and have this 'anti-UBP' cohesion that overrides much of their internal differences. Are there racist attitudes in the PLP? Yep. But because they lack diversity that racism is directed outwards, and means their internal fights are over different issues (chauvinism, homophobia, power etc..)

So forgive me for not feeling the need to repeat myself in every post. If you feel the need to use me as your straw man, at least do me the courtesy of staying abreast of what I write (and spell Dunleavy correctly - there's no 'e' between the 'v' and 'y') ;-).

The fact that I see some PLP influence courtesy of Dr. Brown in this is not a crazy statement; it's a compliment - AND PATENTLY OBVIOUS. You've even got PLP plants over at Limey in Bermuda telegraphing that more announcements will come. Talk about showing your cards.

In fact, I'd expect no less than these tactics from a go for the jugular take no prisoners politician like Dr. Brown. I respect his intelligence and cunning and quite admire his ruthlessness in an odd sort of way. I disagree with all sorts of things that he does and says, but politics is a contact sport and these things happen when you're dealing with human beings.

When Dr. Brown took over there was a sea change in the political landscape which I think the UBP was a little slow to recognise. The UBP's gifts of Jennifer Smith and Alex Scott were gone, replaced by a much more shrewd and effective communicator and strategist.

For those just born yesterday, let me just say that there are no coincidences in politics.

Do you really believe that it's a coincidence that Jamahl, Gwyneth and David Dunkley (ridiculous reason for resigning notwithstanding) all tolerated this appalling treatment - for years - but just happened to reach the breaking point - weeks - after Dr. Brown took over? Could it be that Dr. Brown, who promised to 'obliterate the UBP' saw some weaknesses, a way to cut the legs out from under the UBP, and went for it before likely calling an election after the budget.

It's not at all a stretch to think that they pressured and made overtures, in a careful manner over a number of weeks, to some in the UBP who were having issues operating the internal political environment and feeling the pressure that blacks in the UBP can feel, and figured they could pry them loose.

That's an old trick, but an effective one; especially when you consider that there are those who decided the UBP was done for in the short term by the PLP's removal of Alex Scott. More years in the Opposition doesn't appeal to many.

That's not to say that Jamahl and Gwyn don't feel they have legitimate gripes against these isolated factions in the UBP (Gwyn clearly resents not getting a Senate seat and/or a safe seat after paying her dues. I suppose I could make the same complaint after I spent some time as Party Secretary after the 1998 election defeat and put many hours in on the 2003 election (for the record I don't want a safe seat or ask for anything in return). Is that racism? Or is it that just life?)

I've been in the UBP long enough to know that in the branches and Central there are some hard nuts to crack; people who have over time carved out their own little power bases and protect them through the occasional power play.

When I found myself on the receiving end of those I just laughed it off and marked it down to internal politics; because it can't be racism when it happened to me, can it?

Anyone who follows politics worldwide knows that those who rise to the top know how to navigate the internal politics as well as the external ones. And I think that's more of what's going on here.

My, what a difference a couple of months makes.

Two months ago the doom and gloom was whether the PLP would die a slow death as a result of their leadership battle between Ewart Brown and Alex Scott, and now the UBP is having a particularly bad run on it.

The news that Gwyneth Rawlins, party chairperson has resigned, has thrown the party back into turmoil. But, as they say, 24 hours is a long time in politics, and the PLP can attest to the fact that in October they felt very uncertain about their future while today they feel invincible.

But for Wayne Furbert and the UBP, when it rains it pours; and right now it's a monsoon.

I just got off the phone with two MPs who told me that they had a late night last night, that they have a new young and energetic party chairperson, and will be holding an 11AM press conference.

So they fight on.

You can debate the merits of that, but that's the course they've evidently chosen and I can say that my conversations were clearly not a case of putting on a brave face.

I'll have more to say on this later as the picture becomes clearer.

But for now I'll say that Jamahl had told me that more was coming...to which I'd assumed he meant that his claims would be substantiated. Evidently I was wrong, we've got more claims and another person parroting Jamahl's press release.

This is clearly an orchestrated series of events, and it's pretty clear to me that it's being driven by Dr. Brown and his proxies.

But that's politics.

I'm going to try and get up to the UBP's press conference at 11, and will report back what I find out but it won't be until early afternoon.

A Pembroke West UBP constituent tackles Jamahl Simmons' claims of racism head on in the Royal Gazette's Letters to the Editor.

Money quote:

The difference is that Mr. Adderley is no stranger to us as we see him at church services, in the grocery store and various other places around our community and he always asks how things are and seems genuinely interested in what we have to say. You claim that he is more acceptable to us because he socialises with us. I think a better way to put it is that you are less acceptable to the people of Pembroke West because you were rarely seen or heard from, and it seemed more and more apparent that you were not interested in representing us. Race is completely irrelevant.

As the saying goes, all politics is local.

Someone talk me through this one:

David Dunkley has [racial] problems with his neighbours and it's the UBP's fault?

First the Bermuda Sun runs with it, and now the Gazette's Matthew Taylor - who I think has been very even-handed on the Jamahl Simmons story - drops this line in today's article:

It also emerged yesterday that Corporation of Hamilton alderman David Dunkley had resigned after 28 years in the UBP citing racism as the cause.

Doesn't he mean, "citing his neighbours' racism as the cause".

This is absurd.

So, as promised here are my thoughts on the Jamahl Simmons vs UBP saga of the past couple of days.

Firstly, some disclosure and background.

When Jamahl joined the party (brought in by Wayne Furbert - then Party Chairperson), I was asked to sit on the Branch Candidate Selection Committee as one of the 4 Central Party reps while the Pembroke West Branch had 5.

The two choices presented were Neville Darrell (current Warwick West #28 MP who is retiring at the end of the term due to a severe back injury) and Jamahl Simmons.

The way the meeting played out was that the Central reps were pushing for Neville over Jamahl due to Jamahl's recent arrival from the NLP, where he was a recent arrival from the PLP. My/our position was that Jamahl was open to 'carpet-bagger' criticism and that he should put some time into the party before being handed a UBP safe seat, and that Neville had more experience with his 30 year career and didn't come with Jamahl's musical chair baggage.

The branch members however felt very strongly - very strongly - that they wanted Jamahl, a young fresh face in their area and basically told the Central representatives "Thanks for coming out but you've got 4 votes we've got 5, we'll take Jamahl" - which was entirely their prerogative.

So I have a little background in the early stages. All I can say is that somewhere between that meeting and 2007 something broke down, and I was not around for that. This dispute came as a surprise to me.

Also for the record, I should state that due to time pressures with my family and work I don't have much involvement in the Central party structure anymore and very rarely attend caucus (twice in the past 12 months I think).

I should also say that I know a lot of players in this. I know and like Jamahl a lot, I know and like Wayne a lot, and I worked with some of the people in the Pembroke branch. So I admit that I may be a little close to this situation, which is one reason why I have taken a few days to mull it over before piling in (in addition to fielding quite a few emails and phone calls from perplexed/concerned Bermudians).

I've also had a little email correspondence with Jamahl over the past few days, and I've expressed to him my disappointment that his time in the UBP ended this way, but also my disappointment with the tone and venom that was on display at Monday's press conference, which I think were over the top - and didn't do him any favours (other than trying to endear himself to Dr. Brown and the PLP perhaps).

And finally in the disclosure category, I spoke with Wayne for about half an hour on Monday night, and he read to me a number of email exchanges between himself and Jamahl over several months which confirm that Wayne did indeed reach out, offered support and strategy, and was generally assured by Jamahl that his support was appreciated, although the emails became progressively more hostile to the branch.

But with all that said, I'm going to try and take a dispassionate look at this, or as best I can:

Before I get into the specific accusations I would like to point out that of all Bermuda's political parties, the UBP may be able to claim the most success in working with Jamahl - he lasted 5 years, which is longer than he lasted in the PLP and NLP.

Graeme Outerbridge (NLP) used to rant and rave about Jamahl to me in emails and over at Limey in Bermuda, and berate him for the way he left the NLP. I dismissed it and argued with Graeme that he was being unfair - the usual rants from the at times zany "Big Bad Wolf" - but maybe I shouldn't have.

The first thing to point out in this whole saga is that Jamahl has been a member of every political party in Bermuda in less than 8 years, and left all three in a blaze of glory; the UBP are not alone here. With that kind of history - at age 34 - perhaps you need to look at yourself not necessarily others as the problem, or accept that you don't work well as part of a [political] team. Maybe you're more cut out as a free-agent or an independent.

Now, with respects to the allegation that the movement against Jamahl was racial; that accusation seems shaky.

Jamahl has a valid point about the UBP needing to recruit not just more black candidates but also branch workers. But that's not an easy task. People don't really want to get involved in politics here, so the core workers have been at it a long time, which in the UBP's case means that they are not just older, but more white.

However, because people who are opposed to you are of one race, doesn't mean their complaint is racial. There are a couple of possibilities here:

1) Race was a factor.

or,

2) Race is a convenient and effective accusation against the UBP, used to cover up Jamahl's own inadequacies, but one which plays nicely into the dominant PLP-fed narrative about the party.

Adding to the problems with the race allegation, the candidate the branch now wants is also black - Erwin Adderley. So it's hard to reconcile an accusation that you're being chased out because you're black, when the replacement is black, unless you make the racial argument that Erwin is somehow less-black than Jamahl.

Most importantly Jamahl has failed to substantiate his accusation of racial attacks, other than saying that his black supporters were threatened and he was called lazy.

If he's serious about eradicating racism in Bermuda then he should name and shame. I talked to Wayne Furbert and a couple of others about this allegation, and they say they can't substantiate it. It's clear who was apparently threatened, but so far no-one has been able to say by whom. It's one of those, "I heard that someone at a cocktail party said that if ...." At least that's what I've been told, so on that basis I'm not sure what can be done unless Jamahl or someone else names the individuals involved.

With respects to 'they called me lazy'. I presume what Jamahl is implying here is the classic 'black people are lazy' slur.

Jamahl's situation over the past few years has been incredibly stressful, as he lost his home and his step-son's father in Hurricane Fabian, has had health issues with both his son and now very recently himself, and was recently complaining that he can't find work.

So Jamahl doesn't really deny that he hasn't been the most active MP due to his unfortunate personal situation, but at the press conference he just seemed to expect the branch to accept it, which I've been told they did...for awhile.

Apparently a (large) Pembroke regional meeting was held in 2005 when it was requested that he pick up the canvassing, to which he agreed but they feel didn't happen.

Here is where it gets messy. Jamahl says he was working and that he was accused of canvassing with PLP members, who were actually his family.

With all that was going on in his life with his family and health issues, it's understandable that he wasn't able to go 100% in his constituency, but it's also understandable that despite his issues, the branch wanted a candidate/MP who could fully commit after years of personal problem after problem.

But perspective is important; Jamahl feels he was subject to the lazy stereotype when he in fact was caring for his family, while the branch seem to be arguing that they needed someone who wasn't so distracted.

Also on this topic, I'm sure this battle between the branch and Jamahl got nasty. In political parties there is 'politics' and 'Politics'. At times the internal ones can be worse than the external ones, as the PLP can attest. So backstabbing, intimidation and threats are distasteful, but not that much of a surprise and not that unusual. And the UBP should step in and expel anyone who threatens someone else, but as mentioned above you can't do anything if you don't know who did it.

I can understand why Jamahl might perceive it to be racial, but that doesn't necessary mean it is. In fact a number of white folks have commented to me in the past day on how much of a pain in the ass (and nasty) those Pembroke workers can be at times. I can attest to the fact that they're a demanding bunch. At the 2003 election I was working on the UBP's canvassing database, and Pembroke were extremely demanding and a nightmare (and crapped all over me at times). So I can't say the problems he encountered weren't racial, but again, it's not clear that they were.

Frankly, the race charges are lightly supported and in today's paper Jamahl declines to back them up more strongly, which doesn't help his cause.

These attacks are easy and effective against the UBP. They cut deep and are more problematic that Dr. Brown's shameful attack on Grant Gibbons for example.

My guess is that Jamahl's press conference where he portrayed the UBP as a racist organisation will play well with those who want to believe that, and won't play so well for those people who feel that the race excuse is tired and overplayed. In fact, I predict that many of the people who lambasted Jamahl for the past 5 years as a flip-flopping political opportunist will now hold him up as the beacon of truth.

What Jamahl said on Monday certainly hurt the UBP - probably badly. And like most of these situations there is probably an element of truth to some of the accusation, but that doesn't mean they are true...if you see the difference.

But as I said at the beginning, Jamahl has some credibility problems due to his track record of breezing in and storming out of every political party in Bermuda. His inability to last more than a few years is very cogent to his criticism of the UBP, criticism which isn't that different from what he leveled against the PLP when he left.

On to the accusation that Wayne didn't support Jamahl. While Wayne probably could have - and should have - done more to shut this thing down earlier, from the email exchanges he read to me it's clear that Jamahl was sending decidedly mixed messages. But that doesn't really matter, Wayne should have inserted himself more strongly and I think still needs to shift his approach, understanding that he can't be everyone's friend and needs to throw some elbows around at times.

From that perspective Wayne can do better, but he does genuinely care about people and that is not a bad personality trait. He just shouldn't let that override his need to take a strong hand organisationally at times.

I think I've rambled enough. But my takeaway from all this is that this event has exposed the fragility of the UBP model.

The UBP has a much harder job than the PLP. The UBP have to bring together diverse groups of people who have different experiences and perspectives. This can be contentious. Are there racist attitudes among what Jamahl decribes as a vocal minority in the UBP? Yes.

The PLP on the other hand are monolithic and have this 'anti-UBP' cohesion that overrides much of their internal differences. Are there racist attitudes in the PLP? Yep. But because they lack diversity that racism is directed outwards, and means their internal fights are over different issues (chauvinism, homophobia, power etc..)

The UBP's diversity is both a strength and a weakness. Sure there are some wingnuts in the party, but the UBP aren't alone in that respect. With respects to Jamahl's complaint that the membership doesn't represent Bermuda, no party's membership does - worldwide.

Obviously I wish this whole situation had reached a better outcome, but I get the impression that Jamahl wanted out, and it seems highly likely that he'll boomerang back to the PLP.

As one person said to me yesterday, "Will he have to stop off at the NLP on his way back to the PLP?"

Or as someone on the talk shows apparently said, "He needs to forget about the PLP, NLP or UBP and get a J-O-B."

Maybe he buys into the argument that Ewart Brown's ascension has affirmed a PLP re-election and that he'd better cast his lot again with the PLP. There would be no better way to prove your PLP credentials than to mortally wound the UBP on the way out.

Time will tell.

But I'm sorry it has come down this way. I like Jamahl, I imagine there is some truth to what he says, what the branch says, and what Wayne says.

But if you step back and look at the big picture, as I've attempted to do, things aren't so black and white.

I'm going to post some thoughts on the rather unpleasant - but maybe not as bad as initial reactions might suggest - Jamahl Simmons saga soon, tonight or possibly the morning, but for now, I'm much more interested in Apple's launch of the amazing iPhone and AppleTV.

That's much more exciting and made my day much better.

I have been out of touch for most of the day, but I just received this broadcast email from UBP Leader Wayne Furbert, with respects to Jamahl Simmons and Constituency 19:

A Statement by United Bermuda Party Leader,
The Hon. Wayne L. Furbert, JP. MP

This evening, I received note from Jamahl Simmons, United Bermuda Party MP for Pembroke West, that he would not be contesting next election.

I am saddened by this decision.

We had great hopes for Jamahl. He has lots to offer this country as a smart, young Bermudian interested in public affairs.

Jamahl made great strides over the years in his work for the United Bermuda Party. He served as the party's spokesman for race relations. He worked very closely with us to draft economic empowerment legislation and to plan for the establishment of economic development zones. Jamahl served on the committee to establish a Code of Conduct for Parliamentarians. In addition, he was the party> '> s public relations officer for three years.

I know Jamahl will serve out his term and fulfill his duties to his constituents, both on the ground and in the House of Assembly, with distinction and integrity, and I look forward to him helping us win the next election.

On behalf of the party, I wish him continuing success.

January 5, 2007

I can't speak to what drove Jamahl's decision. I presume we'll be hearing more on this over the coming days.

This is exactly why campaign finance reform is needed in Bermuda.

Both parties are too short-sighted and worried about their immediate prospects to tackle an issue like this that affects them so directly.

Foreign political fund-raising is the worst end of the spectrum, but you've got to be willing to risk something and sacrifice something here for a bigger cause.

I agree with Wayne that donations would dry up if people's names were made public in such a small place as here, but that's probably a good thing and why public financing is probably the answer (although it has it's issues as well).

However you cut it there is an appearance that people would expect something in return.

Wayne Furbert could have totally embraced the concept, regardless of whether he agreed or not, and let the PLP stand alone to reject it. Instead he was honest. Something we don't expect from politicians. Maybe a bad political move, but honest - although short-sighted in my opinion.

We need to look at the bigger picture. We need to get money out of our politics.

The quote of the day goes to Patricia Gordon Pamplin in her Letter to The Royal Gazette Editor:

"We have a Premier who might possess charisma, but not one ounce of class."

A Jamahl Simmons Pembroke West constituent provides some empirical evidence that Jamahl has been pressing the flesh in his area:

"Jamahl (and Sherry) actually stopped by to see us two Saturdays ago so I can say from firthand experience that he is out canvassing ... at least in a very safe UBP area of Spanish Point which makes me wonder if he knew this challenge was on the horizon?"

I did a little more digging today on this UBP Pembroke mess and must say that it's like a mini soap opera.

I managed to touch base with Jamahl who categorically denies the allegation that he's not canvassing or not canvassing effectively and says he's got the data to prove it. He says he's been canvassing hard and methodically in a targeted way. I believe him, which leads me to believe that this is less about politics and more about parochial power games and personalities.

So I'm not getting in the middle of this as it's way too much of a maze to navigate and doesn't seem driven by a specific issue, but what I will say is this:

GET FOCUSED PEOPLE

Now is not the time for the UBP to be getting dragged into internal bickering, there's a much bigger fish to fry.

As everyone should see from the news of the past few days, we have a less than a month old Premier who is playing Independence games, putting his cronies on the payroll and institutionalising corruption by selling access to the highest foreign bidder.

This is not the time for these sideshows, and it's definitely not time to be playing it out in the press. Have people not learned anything from the PLP over the past 3 years?

Contrary to what seems to be the conventional wisdom that the UBP is about to be demolished because the PLP selected Dr. Brown, I take a different view.

While Alex Scott was a bumbler, making him a pretty easy target, Dr. Brown is by no means unbeatable. In fact, I think he's very beatable.

It won't take long, and hasn't, for his supposed strengths to show up as huge liabilities. I predict that the public will tire very quickly of him and the recycled Cabinet he's presiding over as the stench of corruption and his lack of respect for the public and process permeates the island.

What Bermudian is going to pay thousands of dollars to play golf or have a picture taken with the Premier? How absurd.

If segments of the UBP want to get sucked into these games that's a shame. Defeating the PLP at the next election is very, very doable. If Alex Scott's interview yesterday didn't make it clear enough, there is plenty of disdain for the new Premier, his style and lack of an ethical compass.

So put your game faces on. Dr. Brown's in election mode. The UBP's branches should be too. They are in fact. But it only takes one silly little episode like this to cut the legs out from under you.

I received a couple of unsolicited calls and placed a couple of my own this morning, attempting to clarify the backstory on the branch (or a portion of the branch) challenge that seems to be underway against Pembroke UBP MP Jamahl Simmons.

What did I find out? Not a ton really, except that the situation seems very messy, very intense, contained to that branch, driven by a core group of long-standing branch members, but really something that's been bubbling below the surface for awhile. Not too many of the people I spoke with wanted to go anywhere near it.

One of the things that does seem clear is that there is a level of discontent over the amount and/or quality of canvassing that Jamahl does.

It seems that over a year ago there was a Pembroke regional (multi-branch) meeting where Jamahl's canvassing came up and was a topic of heated discussion. After that I was told he did pick up the pace, but that it's dropped off again and that the branch doesn't equate socialising with canvassing...ie. they want hardcore data driven canvassing.

That seems to be a big issue: Jamahl says he's canvassing, a claim that seems to be being disputed.

There's also the issue of former MP Erwin Adderley having a long term interest in that seat, which after being redrawn for single seats largely covered his old geographic area. It seems that he is embarking on a path that would lead to a potential primary challenge.

That's about all I could really seem to get. No-one I spoke with was impressed with the way this was playing out in the press, but no-one seems to have the complete story.

So that's all I can make of it.

The one consistent message from people though was: "This is not what we need and is embarrassing."

I rarely catch the evening news anymore as it's bedtime for the kids, but tonight I caught the end of a story on ZBM about UBP MP Jamahl Simmons's branch trying to replace him with Erwin Adderley, or maybe more accurately stated, Erwin challenging Jamahl (through a primary? - which is the way it would have to be done under the constitution. Or that's my recollection of how it would have to be done).

I couldn't quite figure out what the branch's issue is. The report suggested that there was some unhappiness in the branch that Jamahl was canvassing with non-UBP members. Which is a bit of an odd accusation because Jamahl said he'd been canvassing with his family (father and sister).

The one thing I'd say is that at least he's canvassing! Too many MPs don't do nearly enough of that, so it's sort of rare to hear a complaint about a candidate canvassing, particularly with his family.

There has got to be more to it than that.

The ZBM report also implied a racial component to it, which doesn't add up if the challenger is of the same race. That sounds like a little bit of reporter mischief playing into the PLP narrative about the UBP.

We'll have to see how this plays out over the next few days. From a publicity perspective it's a royal mess to have these type of internal battles played out publicly as the PLP can attest.

Challenges are ok as long as they follow the prescribed route, it keeps sitting MPs on their toes, but this situation seems a bit odd and having someone in the branch run to the press is a recipe for disaster. Another thing the PLP can attest to.

Interesting article on the front page of the Royal Gazette today, with talk of Michael Dunkley switching seats to challenge Patrice Minors and John Barritt potentially taking on Glenn Blakeney in constituency 13.

The article has the air of breaking a big story with the "Dunkley versus Minors" headline, but this talk has been around for awhile. The John Barritt move has been rumoured in the press before, but the RG must be confident of at least Michael Dunkley's move to give it the lede.

Patrice Minors didn't work hard at the last election, and Michael works as hard as anyone out there. If the PLP sticks to the Botanical Gardens site for the hospital, it could be an added problem for the Health Minister, although it won't play as bad in Constituency 10 as others.

[Note: I am privy to no inside information here with respects to who is running where, just the usual rumours.]

Shaking things up would be a good thing; Michael and John are two of the UBP's most gifted and hard-working MP/candidates. The UBP needs to take some risks, get out of their comfort zones and let the big dogs loose in the right areas. Moving strong MPs around will shake the whole dynamic up.

Comments such as "It's all or nothing now" are what I like to hear. A little fire in the belly is a good thing for a group that has tended to be outwardly restrained and hasn't shown enough hunger to win.

Two interesting developments yesterday by the UBP:

The first was the announcement that former Warwick North East (#25) candidate and former Senator Mark Pettingill will be moving to Warwick West (28) - the district I am about to move out of.

Current UBP candidate and Shadow Education Minister Neville Darrell will be stepping down after one term in the House and one in the Senate. I understand Mr. Darrell is stepping down for personal reasons, he'll be missed. While some criticize him for keeping a relatively low media profile he works hard behing the scenes and is a thoughtful person. My hope is that he resurfaces in the Senate.

Mr. Pettingill adds some legal expertise which is sorely needed in the legislature, as well as tenacious debating skills and a high profile.

He's a solid candidate, but he needs to get out and hit the pavement.

Secondly was the story on ZBM news (and maybe others) that the UBP's Pembroke team has been very active assisting the residents in collecting school supplies for needy families and will be holding a community back to school event.

This is such a positive move on a number of levels, not the least of which is that Pembroke has been a PLP stronghold but has been neglected by their PLP representatives.

For the UBP to make a strong push in Pembroke shows that they are willing to work in all constituencies, and helping people who are struggling to get their children school supplies is a great way to have a meaningful and measurable impact.

Keep it simple. This initiative isn't just good for the community, it's by extension good politics.

And there it is. The Royal Gazette leads today with the election by the UBP Parliamentary group of Wayne Furbert as Party/Opposition Leader, replacing Dr. Grant Gibbons at the top.

There's been a lot of talk over the past few months that the leadership of both parties should change, but this comes as a bit of a surprise. I was aware that a process was ongoing, as described by Dr. Gibbons himself in today's paper, but I did a double-take this morning when I picked up the paper nonetheless.

Wayne's a great guy and it will be interesting to see what his first steps are.

There's a UBP Townhall meeting tonight if you're interested:

The Smith's & Devonshire Regions of the United Bermuda Party will be holding a Town Hall meeting at Somersfield Academy Auditorium, 107 Middle Road, Devonshire on Tuesday, November 22, 2005 at 7:30pm.

In attendance will be the Opposition Leader and Shadow Minister of Finance, Dr. The Hon. E. Grant Gibbons, PhD, JP, MP. and Ms. Gwyneth Rawlins JP, Party Chairman. The following Shadow Ministers will also be present:-

Mr. Michael H. Dunkley JP MP - Deputy Opposition Leader & Shadow Minister of Labour, Home Affairs & Public Safety

Hon. Wayne L. Furbert JP MP - Shadow Minister of Housing

Mr. John Barritt JP MP - Leader of the House & Party Whip

Mr. Cole Simons JP MP - Shadow Minister of the Environment

Mr. Trevor G. Moniz JP MP - Shadow Attorney General & Shadow Minister of Legislative Affairs, Justice, Telecommunications and E-Commerce

Hon. Maxwell A. Burgess JP MP - Shadow Minister without Portfolio

Mrs. Louise A. Jackson JP MP - Shadow Minister of Health & Family Services, Seniors, Community & Cultural Affairs

Should you have any questions, please call our central office at 295-0729

From the better late than never file, the United Bermuda Party's full 2005 Throne Speech Reply is available here in my document archive, or at the party's website.

One week ago I posted a note on some of the rumoured personal changes that might be coming down the pipe, and promised to follow up with some thoughts of my own on potential leadership challenges in the UBP. Time, a business trip and a lively news week interefered with that post...which is still coming.

But, some changes have already occurred both in the PLP and UBP, most notably the return of David Burch to the Senate for the PLP and the UBP's elevation of Jon Brunson to Deputy Leader and the desired nomination of Gina Spence-Farmer to the Senate (and ensuing scuffle with the Bermuda College).

So circumstances have overtaken me a bit, but something struck me as odd in yesterday's Gazette story on Jon Brunson becoming one of two Deputy Leaders in the UBP.

The odd thing was that there was no mention that Wayne Furbert must have stepped down to faciliate Brunson's stepping up. Wayne has been the subject of speculation lately as an aspirant to UBP leader.

I have absolutely no inside scoop as to what is going on in the UBP Parliamentary group with respects to leadership, but I struggle to believe that there isn't more to this than just a Deputy change.

The annual party leadership speculating game is getting hot and heavy, as it always does after the summer recess (Parliament resumes on Friday Nov. 4th).

On that basis I'd concur with UBP leader Grant Gibbons that this is an annual press event and that it would be inappropriate for him to comment – but that doesn't mean there isn't something to the talk. And I think this year more than most there’s a little more substance to it, for both the UBP and PLP.

But staying on the UBP for now, I've been hearing the rumblings, like most other people have, for some time now.

The press, VSB in particular, has focused mostly on UBP Senator Bob Richards and the maneuvering that would have to happen for him to take a seat in Parliament before assuming the party leadership. It’s an interesting option, but a tough one to execute. And the one thing that I know for sure is that in politics the outcome you expect is the least likely one to occur.

Enter Wayne Furbert and Maxwell Burgess on ZBM’s newscast last night, and then again (with John Barritt) in today’s Royal Gazette top story 'Gibbons UBP leadership said to be shaky.'

The story is short, and there isn’t too much meat in it, but there are a couple of items of note.

Firstly, there’s a little positioning going on in The Royal Gazette’s piece. I don’t know who their “MP”, “another senior figure” or “some party sources” are, but I wouldn’t be surprised if at least one of the leadership hopefuls is in there. The statement attributable to “some party sources” that “Sen. Richards has been damaged by his failure to get elected in Warwick for the past two elections” seems suspiciously like a candidate or someone in his camp attempting to take some of Sen. Richards’ shine off.

Then there’s the statement from “another senior figure” that the “party would do what is necessary to win the next election.” That type of talk is always a good sign, but it also implies that some believe a win can’t be achieved under the current leadership.

And I hear that a lot both inside and outside of the party. Perhaps the most public indicator of this is the recent poll results which suggest that the huge dissatisfaction with the PLP and Premier Scott is not translating into support for the UBP and Grant Gibbons.

That is indeed a worrying sign, and is as much an indictment of the UBP team as a whole as it is the party leadership. But at the end of the day the leader is the one who sets the tone and drives the party and must accept responsibility.

So is there something to the idea that Dr. Gibbons needs to be replaced if the UBP are to win the next election? Maybe.

At its simplest level, a change in leadership and direction is desirable in any organization that seems to be treading water as the UBP are. But you’ve also got to look at what the alternatives bring to the table.

More on that in my next post later today (or this evening).

It truly warmed my heart to hear and read the comments of the UBP Senators Kim Swan and Bob Richards during yesterday's brief session.

Both of these guys were right on the money and didn't pull their punches:

* The Bermuda Homes for People project, while promising, is little more than that - a promise.
* This Parliamentary session is notable solely for its lack of activity.
* Premier Scott's tenure has seen a shocking lack of accountability and mismanagement coupled with attempts to paper over this through highly controlled press events a la the "Address to the Nation".

PLP Senate Leader and Attorney General Larry Mussenden seemed a little shell-shocked when interviewed on the evening news shows last night, responding with a rather lame argument that legislation is about quality over quantity.

Which of course begs the question of how you can produce quality legislation when there isn't any.

This defence also flies in the face of the track record of sloppy legislation coming out of this Government, with the most notable example being the seat belt law and a poorly constructed piece of legislation passed last week on Parliamentary pay hikes. This Act used terms (full-time and part-time Ministers) which were simply undefined.

Mr. Mussenden's a lawyer, the Attorney General in fact, and should know good and bad legislation when he sees it. Yesterday he didn't have his legal hat on, he had his crash helmet on.

That notwithstanding, and contrary to what alot of people seem to think, I'd like to see more not less lawyers in Parliament. It is after all a law making body, and we'd probably see better legislation as a result.

A fine tribute to one of Bermuda's finest politicians, in Friday's Mid Ocean News.

There was so much that was right with the UBP through the upheaval of the 60's and 70's, and is still right with the party today. Sadly this risks being lost to the idea that the party was nothing more than an organisation designed to keep people down.

As Tim Hodson writes:

"Two political parties emerged in this unsettled period, each advocating very different avenues to the future.

"The United Bermuda Party adopted a conciliatory approach to race relations and an evolutionary approach to change. Its overriding strategic objective – which its founding fathers recognised may in fact have come too late – was to bridge the cultural divide between Bermuda's racial communities for the common good.

"The Progressive Labour Party had a more revolutionary agenda. It espoused what at the time was known as Third World Socialism, a nationalist variation on Marxism in which an oppressed native people stood in for an oppressed working class.

"It was on to this increasingly tense stage that John Stubbs strode. Of humble origins, he felt no allegiance to or kinship with Bermuda's old aristocracy. And he felt only revulsion for the radicalised elements preaching revolution.

"Stubbs recognised that the UBP's initial, tepid plan to create what amounted to a half-way house between segregation and full democracy and integration would amount to an exercise in futility. Similarly, he believed the PLP's desire to replace white exclusivity with black separatism would doom the island to an unending cycle of sectarianism.

"If each racial community believed it could only thrive by dominating the other, Stubbs predicted a future of conflict, a never-ending cycle of mutual distrust and recriminations. He could anticipate blood feuds and vendettas multiplying like so many cancer cells. He could foresee the seeds of new strife being sown as a result of whatever terms the victorious racial grouping attempted to impose on the subjugated one."

Anyone who's had the misfortune of discussing politics with me will have probably heard me talk about the parallels between the plights of Bermuda and the US's political parties.

The parallels are not on a policy level, that's pretty obvious. The PLP and Republicans are light years apart on the political spectrum. The UBP is very much a centrist party, a little bit to the left on social issues but sensibly to the right on fiscal matters, probably somewhere between the 'New Democrats' and centrist Republicans like John McCain, Guiliani, Schwarzenegger etc. while the PLP are a party still largely controlled by an extremist wing, albeit from opposite ends of the spectrum.

When considering Bermuda's recent political history, I liken the PLP to the Republicans, and the UBP to the Democrats.

Rather than go into some long-winded explanation as why I believe that to be the case I'll just say that at its most simplest, the PLP, like the Republicans, are masters at exploting specific issues, energising their base and demonizing their opponent. The UBP and the Democrats both struggle to be able to succintly state what they believe in, partially because they are built from a broader base and exist as loose coalitions around multiple issues.

Most strikingly to me of late is the lay of the land in both Bermuda and the US. Both are characterised by high levels of disenchantment with the governing parties but minority parties yet to translate this into victory at the polls.

This article, from the blog NewDonkey.com says it all for me. I've quoted a section below that really hits the nail on the head (if you switch the American references for Bermudian ones).

I've made the switches in italicized brackets to demonstrate my point.

The rest of the article is well worth a read as well. The bullet points from James Carville and Stan Greenberg on the road ahead for the Democrats would make a great blueprint for the UBP.

"There's a blizzard of public opinion research making its way into publication that consistently makes one big point: growing majorities of Americans (Bermudians) think the country is headed in the wrong direction (or, to use the train metaphor which a whole generation of pollsters has conspired to impose on us, America (Bermuda) is on "the wrong track"). George W. Bush's (Alex Scott's) approval ratings have dropped to their pre-9/11 level, while his main priorities, especially Social Security privatization (Independence), are more unpopular every day. And the Republican Party and the Republican Congress (PLP) are getting down there into the dangerous territory of being perceived as a menace to the country.

"But--Democrats (the UBP) are not yet benefitting from this wreckage. And it's not too hard to understand why: for (largely) sound tactical reasons, they are focused on opposing the GOP (PLP) agenda rather than projecting any positive agenda of their own. But that can't go on forever. Negative perceptions of the Democratic Party (UBP) on security, the role of government, and (to a lesser extent now that the GOP (PLP) is lurching off the right-wing edge) culture have not gone away."

Just a reminder that Cory Booker will be speaking today at St Paul's Centennial Hall at 12:30PM today (Monday 29 Nov. 2004).

The topic is "The Strengths & Challenges of Diversity".

I'll be there. There will be a light lunch provided.

I've posted an ad in the left hand column for the event that the UBP will be hosting on Monday, Nov. 29, 2004 at 12:30PM at the St. Paul's Centennial Hall, corner of Court & Victoria Streets.

Come by, bring your co-workers and friends. The event is free and open to all. Booker is widely regarded as a dynamic public speaker with a compelling story. A light lunch will be served.

In their Reply to the Throne Speech, the UBP announced:

The last of our 40th anniversary celebrations in 2004 will introduce the first in a series of conversations about race that we have planned for the year ahead. On November 29, Cory Booker, a Democratic social and political activist from Newark, New Jersey, will speak at St. Paul’s Centennial Hall on the strengths and challenges of diversity.

An article in this week's Washintgon Monthly profiles Booker:

"The Great Black Hope: 'What's riding on Barack Obama', Nov. 2004".

Below are some additional web sites with information on Mr. Booker:

Johnson C. Smith University: Cory Booker

NDOL: 100 To Watch: Cory A. Booker

Cory Booker - Greater Talent Network Speaker Profile

Horizon: The Downwardly Mobile Cory Booker

Now that Parliament is back in session John Barritt, aka JB the MP, is back in action with his Friday Mid Ocean Column reviewing the previous session.

The UBP has just announced the creation of a Shadow Minister for Race Relations and Economic Opportunity. David Dodwell, former Shadow for Tourism has turned that role over to Senator Kim Swan in order to assume responsibility for this new area.

Full text of press release:

Gibbons unveils newly created Shadow Ministry for Race Relations and Economic Opportunity

UBP Senate Leader appointed Shadow Minister of Tourism

United Bermuda Party Leader Grant Gibbons today announced changes to his Shadow Cabinet intended to strengthen his party’s position as the next government.

“The United Bermuda Party believes that the diversity of our party, like the diversity of our community, is a source of strength,” said Dr. Gibbons. “However, in Bermuda we still have one community that continues to experience pain and anger from the injustices of the past, as well as current challenges, and another community that’s frustrated and scared to address race for fear of making a mistake. We believe that there is still unfinished business between black and white Bermudians that must be addressed in order for us to work together as equal partners in the challenges we face.

“We want to lead this country by beginning a serious discussion on race, economic opportunity and all the related issues, which continue to divide our people. We believe we have a role and responsibility as a political party to work to break down racial barriers in our community and assist in the process of reconciliation. The issue of race is not just a black issue. The white community has an important role to play.

“To facilitate this discussion, I am pleased today to announce the appointment of David Dodwell to the newly created shadow portfolio of Race Relations and Economic Opportunity. We recognize that this discussion on race won’t be easy and that we probably will make mistakes along the way, but we feel that the goal of building One Bermuda and breaking down racial barriers is worth the challenges we will face.”

Dr. Gibbons added, “I have known David Dodwell for many years, and he has always impressed me with his commitment to working toward our vision of a Bermuda with opportunity for all and special privilege for none. I believe he is the right man to advance this critical agenda.

“But it’s not just David’s responsibility; all of us in our party will be fighting for a fairer and more inclusive Bermuda. And all of us will be speaking out against polarization and divisiveness in our community.”

Dr. Gibbons continued, “We, like so many Bermudians, are very concerned about the continuing decline in tourism. I am pleased today to announce the appointment of Senator Kim Swan to the post of Shadow Tourism Minister. Kim has spent almost his entire life in the hospitality industry. He began his career as a young man working at the Port Royal Golf Course. Later he worked at Belmont in the dining room at night and played golf with visitors during the day. For many years, he was the general manager of the St. George’s Golf Club. Kim has the experience, dedication and understanding of what’s required to restore tourism to its critical place in our economy.

David Dodwell said, “While I have mixed feelings about reducing my formal responsibilities for tourism I am very excited about my new role in Race Relations and Economic Opportunity. Bermuda is at a pivotal point in its history. We can either continue as a community that is divided by mistrust, hatred and injustice or we can begin to talk to each other about how we can level the playing field, create opportunity and make this great vision of One Bermuda a reality. We are committed to breaking down the barriers that deny our people an equal chance to succeed in this country. The United Bermuda Party is committed to aggressively seeking out new economic opportunities; empowering all Bermudians to compete for and have access to Bermuda’s prosperity. To do this we must begin to talk to each other and seek ways to resolve the unfinished business between black and white Bermudians.”

Kim Swan said, “Someone once told me that the secret of Bermuda’s success in tourism was that we ‘romanced’ our visitors. The Bermudian people, the friendliness and attentiveness that we give to our visitors are key to our success. In 1998, the PLP promised a 100-day rescue mission to save tourism. November 9, 2004 marks the 2190th day of the PLP’s 100-day rescue mission with no end in sight. My love and understanding of tourism doesn’t come from a book but from working in the tourism industry and spending time with our visitors. My main focus will be to facilitate empowerment for the stakeholders in the industry, those who already have a vested interest in and understanding of the industry, who are the best persons to facilitate a rebirth of tourism. We need to get back to basics and expand the role played by the private sector through a tourism authority.”

###

The end of the 2003/2004 Parliamentary session saw a burst of activity from the UBP with the release of a newsletter on housing, a full page newspaper ad entitled "Promises Made, Promises Kept" and a press conference that generated a number of news stories.

This activity is a smart move for the party. One of the problems of being an Opposition is being able to notch accomplishments as well as staying on top of the Government. If you're not careful you can spend all your time complaining which is a turn off to voters.

The activity served a number of purposes before many Bermudians depart for their summer holidays. It maintains a presence for the party between elections, points to areas the party was able to achieve results for the electorate as well as reinforce that a UBP vote wasn't wasted. If a political party goes AWOL between elections and then reappears for a short campaign with lots of promises, the job of convincing the voters that you are sincere and not just opportunistic becomes a very difficult one.

So I applaud the party for taking the initiative in a time when the Government is clearly in disarray, preoccupied with internal battles that were never dealt with after the coup of 2003.

All isn't well in PLP-land, which presents the UBP with a prime opportunity to make some inroads into the swing voters.

A few more thoughts on the by-election results from last night:

I'll begin by stating that I was completely uninvolved in this campaign and know nothing about what the campaign was thinking.

As I said in a post last night I don't think either party has achieved much traction since the General Election of July 2003. This is obviously a worse scenario for the UBP than the PLP. The PLP, as the majority Party, would be reasonably happy with the status quo, whereas the UBP need to change some minds or attract the traditional non-voters.

Phil Wells, over at A Limey in Bermuda, appears to be struggling to comprehend the campaign that the UBP and their candidate, Corin Smith ran. I don't think it is really all that complicated to be honest and the RG Editorial sheds some insight into the UBP's approach and the mindset of the electorate.

Let's start with the obvious. This election was about party loyalty at the end of the day.

Michael Scott (PLP) received the same 440 or so PLP votes that their candidates always get, and Corin Smith got the 220 or so UBP votes in that constituency. No big insights there. Neither party's candidate changed any minds, they just got out the respective core vote. That's all about organisation. It's not about message, ideas, like-ability or effective canvassing. Each party knows where their base is and got them out.

The more notable aspect of this by-election is that approximately 400 people still chose not to vote. Those are people who feel no allegiance to either party and are completely disenchanted with the choices they are given every election. Corin Smith had expressed his strategy as an attempt to appeal to these voters, rather than the UBP base (who are the ones who came out for him).

His strategy didn't work, probably due to a few reasons.

Firstly, four weeks of campaigning isn't really enough time to change the minds of people who've felt shut out and jaded for years. Secondly, many of these disenchanted voters are young and traditionally uninterested in politics. They might have voted for the first time in 1998 feeling party of a movement but that was a one-off event. Thirdly, this strategy, if Corin Smith indeed thought it to be a potentially winning strategy, necessitated that he get the vast majority of these 400 to the polls to carry him through. He'd at least have needed another 200 of these 400, assuming Michael Scott got none of them himself. That's a tall order.

Saying that, it wasn't a completely bad strategy when you consider that he knew that he already had 220 hard-core UBP votes in the bag. The party would deliver those, he had to go get the other 200. Running as an independent would have been completely unsuccessful as he could kiss those 220 votes good-bye and would lack the organisation that the partys offer. Corin Smith just couldn't change minds in that time frame.

Bermuda is a two party system and the new single seats are less kind to independents than the previous dual seats were. The NLP signed their own death warrant by supporting single seats. I doubt I'll see an independent or third party candidate elected in Bermuda as long as the PLP and UBP continue to exist.

As for the distance between the United Bermuda Party and their candidate.

The UBP, as the RG pointed out, crafted a campaign in 2003 revolving around a crisis in confidence in the PLP Premier, Jennifer Smith, and an attempt to turn around a public perception problem with what the letters UBP had come to represent to many people. The UBP candidates ran as a reinvigorated team, the 'New UBP' and aggressively pushed a number of issues with a more caring, sensitive approach than previous UBP campaigns.

It worked to an extent but wasn't enough to carry them over the top, for a number of reasons I've previously written about.

Corin Smith and the UBP are, to many people, an odd couple. Corin has fashioned himself as a grass roots black activist, while the UBP are portrayed by the party's political opponents as insensitive to the black community.

While I don't subscribe to this representation of the UBP as I've been on the inside and it is just wrong, I do agree that the party has a lot of work to do to gain back the trust of a large part of the black community. Some will never be open to the UBP, but others like Corin Smith, are intrigued by the direction the party has moved since its election defeat in 1998. They see the UBP as the only sincere choice to move Bermuda forward, despite its flaws.

So why did this odd couple come together? Well Corin Smith has stated that he saw the UBP as the vehicle to bring the community together and has given up on the PLP as genuinely wanting to unite us. The UBP embraced Corin Smith, as an unconventional candidate who would provide a strong voice internally for the needs of the black community and some approaches to address them. Both sides moved towards each other, something that Grant Gibbons has been advocating over the past few years. This was the most demonstrable example of this, but it has been going on prior to this by-election, kicked off with a speech on Oct. 30, 2002.

Corin Smith offered some validation to the public that the UBP is changing and personally found the party's message appealing. The party offerred him the critical organisation he needed and that vote base that he hoped he could build on. For Corin to have suddenly become Mr. UBP would have played into the stock criticism of the party, that their black candidates are sanitised and overly managed by a white leadership. It would have killed the credibility that Corin has built up over the past few years as an independent thinker and a reformer.

Did it work? Not this time. Will it work? Who knows. That's what they'll be trying to figure out.

But the one thing that is known for sure is that the UBP can't continue to run the campaign that they did in the lead up to the 1998 election. The PLP have a much more shrewd leader, even if he is Jennifer Smith's hand picked successor.

The UBP's Budget reply is available online. It's a good read and caused quite a few groans in the House while it was being read.

My favourite line was the reference to Alex Scott as a 'Weapon of Mass Deception'. How true!

The Premier today announced March 4th as the date for the by-election to fill the seat vacated by the death of the late Finance Minister Eugene Cox.

The UBP's candidate has been set for some time. The PLP are yet to decided with the clock ticking and an intriguing process set to reduce 9 people down to the final one.

Most people seem to suggest that Sen. Michael Scott is the front-runner while Col. David Burch lingers as the rumoured favourite of the Cox family.

Either way, I'm sure that Alex Scott would prefer someone else. Both of these candidates are Jennifer Smith loyalists and could threaten Mr. Scott's Parliamentary support base.

I'll write more on this tomorrow.

The Bermuda Sun is out of the gates first:

Bermuda Sun: 'UBP Names Sandys Candidate', Jan. 28, 2004

The UBP has just announced lawyer Corin Smith as their candidate to contest the upcoming Sandys North bye-election.

Another interesting perspective in Friday's Sun (recently added online) by Tom Vesey, a veteran observer of Bermudian politics (and a friend). I greatly respect his insight and think he's touched on a number of critical areas.

Bermuda Sun: 'Figures show the UBP is more diverse than it was', Jan. 16, 2004

Sir John Swan is taking some hits in the local media today with a guest editorial in the Mid Ocean, and a Letter to the Editor in the Royal Gazette.

John Swan's comments have triggered a very healthy public debate on the UBP, its current leadership and the Party's relevance going forward. I firmly believe that this is good for Bermuda and good for the UBP. The Royal Gazette editorialised on this yesterday and Bryant Trew has a column on it in today's Bermuda Sun (I'm going to write on Byrant Trew's column in a later post).

I think that it is important to establish where I stand on this issue as someone who ran for the UBP in the last election, worked on the Campaign, and continues to believe that the UBP is the best political choice for Bermuda, despite some structural problems and a resistance to change from some supporters.

As I've stated before, I generally agree with John Swan's sentiments about the fortunes of the UBP, although his delivery left much to be desired. If you accept the two interpretations of the UBP's election performance in today's Royal Gazette editorial (although I think it�s more complicated) then I'd concur with the second, namely that:

"the PLP's own disarray and miserable campaign handed the UBP a golden opportunity to win the election."

One element that I think has been missing from most assessments of the UBP�s election performance, and Sir John's critique, is the complete state of disarray that the party found itself in after - and in many ways because of - John Swan�s departure. I respect Sir John for his principled stand on Independence through a referendum and his subsequent resignation, but memories seem to be fading on his role in the McDonald�s fiasco, an unpopular drive for Independence and his subsequent support of David Saul over Jim Woolridge as his successor. If you subscribe to Sir John�s analysis of Bermuda�s political climate then you must believe that David Saul would also have been a �turn off to black voters� - yet my understanding is that Sir John supported him.

Ruling out Sir John supporting David Saul as a Machiavellian method to ensure a UBP defeat (which I don�t think is a credible position), this support doesn�t jive with his own analysis of Bermuda�s political dynamic - unless he misread it in the mid-90s, and has since re-assessed (a distinct possibility). Members of the UBP who ran in 1993 will tell you that the Party thought it was going to lose that election but were saved by Maxwell Burgess and Wayne Furbert, who unexpectedly defeated Julian Hall and Eugene Blakeney. These two PLP candidates took the voters for granted, didn�t canvass and paid the price (a valuable lesson to all aspiring MPs).

What am I trying to say with all this? Simply that the UBPs problems go back further than the 1998 election and were exacerbated by internal battles around two issues (Independence & McDonald�s). Sir John was the central figure in each of these debacles. The parting of the UBP and Sir John was acrimonious and well documented, but in many ways it contributed to the current state of the UBP and current public perception.

The PLP�s rise to power was a result of a number of factors including an apparent shift (mostly superficial) to the centre under Freddie Wade, a self-destructing UBP and a feeling that it was time to give the PLP a chance after 30 years of UBP success. The PLP�s reduced-majority victory in 2003 was a function of a large second chance sentiment, a much improved but still recovering UBP, and a masterfully executed race-based guilt trip dropped in the critical final days of the campaign.

Many black voters who had supported the PLP in 1998 were frustrated by arrogance, mismanagement, corruption and inaction. A large portion of black Bermudians were on the fence, unsure whether to begrudgingly vote PLP, stay at home or go back to the UBP (remember the UBP won 9 successive elections drawing significant black support). The PLP were well aware of this and resorted to an issue they knew they can exploit to trump their appaling track record � Race. This strategy was the only thing that could persuade voters that 'a vote for the UBP was selling out your race', a powerful weapon. This message was delivered on the doorstep in the early days of canvassing and cranked up in the press during the final week. Bermuda's racial wounds are still raw, the PLP masterfully re-open these wounds for political purposes regularly.

If you don�t believe the success of the PLP�s race based campaigning then consider this: the PLP essentially ran no campaign, didn�t present a position on any of the major issues, didn�t bother to produce a platform, and didn�t have candidates until a couple of weeks before. The party was in such disarray that the newly elected group almost imploded minutes after the votes were counted.

This brings me right back to the initial question? Did the UBP manage to rise from the ashes, present itself as a viable party and compete on its own accord (which they did to some extent) or was the success largely attributable to the PLP�s own �disarray and miserable campaign�.

I believe that if you don�t subscribe to a slightly modified second assessment, that the PLP contributed as much to the UBP�s success (and revival in the pre-2003 election years) as the UBP did, that you�ve got your head in the clouds.

So where does that leave the UBP? Quite simply, the UBP have to continue doing what they�ve been doing - but be prepared to lose some support in order to gain more (ie. don't pander to the Old White Bermudian membership). The party needs to spend some time doing some soul searching, re-defining their own core values and becoming more relevant and inspiring to a country with a large black majority. As an opposition it is too easy to be reactive, forgetting to define what you stand for. The UBP must take the country in its own direction, bearing in mind that the PLP are clearly going to using Independence as the 3rd step in a race based strategy to retain the Government.

Firstly the PLP used the theme of �Emancipation� to achieve victory in 1998. We graduated to �Affirmation� in 2003, and the next election will be �Independence� (or some more powerful term representing the breaking of the colonial master's chains) as the final step towards Emancipation (we come full circle). So Bermuda can look forward to at least one more round of PLP race based campaigning, intended to mask the feeling of betrayal from the corruption and scandals which are about to erupt, characterising the PLP's second term. Independence, it is hoped, will "distract from scandals involving Cabinet-level graft and fiscal malfeasance".

Unless the UBP defines its own vision and direction for Bermuda (which could very well include Independence), inspiring Bermudians to come along with it, the future will continue to be an uphill battle - regardless of any criminal record of the PLP administration.

I'm going to write some more on this topic later but if you haven't bought the Mid Ocean yet today I'd do so.

There are 3 good articles:

1) An interview with Khalid Wasi (a friend of mine) about the emergence of a new activist group to try and gain the middle ground in Bermuda politics
2) John Swan elaborating on his comments in last week's Royal Gazette.
3) Tim Hodgson's editorial on what John Swan may be up to.

Well worth reading.

Follow this link to the UBP press release in response to Sir John Swan's comments:

UBP Press Release Dec 29, 2003

Sir John's got a credibility problem somewhere on this, or he's schizophrenic! Read these quotes below from Sir John in the Mid Ocean News from July 18th, 2003 and compare them to the quotes from today's RG (emphasis my own):

Mid Ocean News (July 18, 2003)

"Many of the people I have talked to in the past few years, both here and abroad, have become increasingly concerned at the direction Bermuda has been taking in the last four-and-a-half years," he said. "I have shared their disillusionment and frustration at what has happened - or not happened - under the PLP leadership.

"I have been appalled to learn that in these last four years some 1,000 Bermudian jobs have been lost and almost as many foreign jobs created. I have seen a growing dependence on international business and the loss of prestige and focus in our tourism industry.

"I have seen our neighbours become concerned at our unfathomable decision to form links with Cuba and then insult the United States representative in Bermuda."

Sir John felt compelled to step forward after hearing the testimonies of concerned locals who shared his frustration with PLP leadership.

"Bermuda is not in better shape after the last four-and-a-half years and anyone who questions this is not in touch with Bermudians," he said. "I know many people who have lost hope. I have seen our senior citizens struggle to pay for needed prescription drugs and throughout Bermuda entire communities are becoming fearful for their safety.

"This is not the Bermuda they expected, it is not the Bermuda they want and it is certainly not the Bermuda they deserve.

"As a result of their disappointment and sheer disillusionment with the PLP Government, Bermudians from all walks of life have come to me and asked me to become involved in public life again."

--- End of Mid Ocean Clip ---

Royal Gazette (Dec. 29, 2003) 5 MONTHS LATER

The PLP is helping to reduce inequality and Sir John said he hoped the UBP would also take up this goal.

"I don't think Bermuda is under any threat because of the PLP."

He said blacks were doing well with renting property while whites were owing equity in businesses. Sir John also praised Government's handling of the six-year term limits on work permits. "The Government still has the right to exercise a level of discretion which it is doing. I think it is acting very responsibly quite frankly."

He denied he had gone PLP but refused to say if he had voted for the UBP although he said he was still a member. Asked if the UBP was wrong to have Grant Gibbons as leader Sir John said: "It is not a question of being wrong, it is a question of can the UBP move on. That's the issue."

--- End of RG Clip ---

I'm confused.

John Swan lays it out in today's Royal Gazette with regard to the hurdles that the UBP face.

I'm not sure what provoked this but he's got it right about the need for change, although he's not quite correct when he states that "the UBP has to go through some very fundamental changes which I don't think it recognises". The Party recognises it and are implementing it, while some of the older membership are being dragged along. But both Pamela Gordon and now Grant Gibbons have been an impetus for change since the 98 election defeat. That's what attracted me to the party.

Sir John is also more than a little unkind to the black Bermudian candidates who put their necks out, at the risk of ridicule and viscious attacks by the PLP, when he refers to them as "a number of blacks who didn't have that intellectual background". That sounds pretty elitist itself.

My only question is, why did he choose to endorse the Party during the recent election campaign? What's changed since July?