The end of Dr. Brown's authority began in earnest today with Dale Butler''s rather unconventional launch of a bid for his party's leadership today (11 uses of the word 'they', 2 uses of the word 'we' when referring to his own party), combined with Paula Cox's raised profile on crime smelling like the soft launch of her own bid. (Not to mention that the Finance Minister was the clear political beneficiary of the leaked Cabinet document revealing her objection to purchasing real estate in Hamilton).
The new year has not surprisingly signaled the beginning of the outgoing Premier's lame ducking. The practical realities of him having to offer to step down in 2010 to quell the Uighur uprising is that he has no political capital to spend, which is vital if he intends to advance an issue like casinos or negotiate any large new tourism developments without deception and more Parliamentary tricks (which failed the last time).
The only question left to answer now is if and when the 'beg me to stay' campaign begins?
One suspects that the crux of that campaign, if it happens, will be that Bermuda is facing some very difficult times ahead and Dr. Brown is the only guy up to the task.
That argument won't resonate because his legacy is all that has created these difficult times: an economy that has tanked, exacerbated by out of control spending; crime that has sky-rocketed both in frequency and severity; and tourism at all time lows.
2010 looks to be a critical year for Bermuda. Many question remains such as:
- Who will lead the PLP (and therefore Bermuda) and what is their vision
- Will the BDA be able to differentiate themselves from the UBP? So far there isn't any daylight between the two parties on philosophy or vision, just vehicle and personalities.
- Has the UBP hit rock bottom and will it be able to start rebuilding?
- Will the economy continue to contract or will it level out?
- Will any tourism developments actually break ground, or will we be tortured with more vague assurances that financing is in place and yes, it's going to happen this year, even though we said that last year, and the year before, and the year before that?
The only way the outgoing Premier can make himself relevant in 2010 is to say that he doesn't intend to step down and will look to be re-elected in October.
Otherwise, during this most critical year, everyone will look past him as the Gazette's articles this morning demonstrate. He'll be increasingly talked about in the past tense.
The contenders are stepping up early. What's missing is a vision in how to to right this ship. The first task of those looking to succeed Dr. Brown's will be to start putting some distance between themselves and the outgoing Premier -as the Cabinet leak did for Paula Cox.
