I know as much as anyone else about what might be said or go down in the UBP's general membership meeting tonight.
I have had very little contact with the UBP in over a year, before the election really, other than when I bump into some of the folks on the street, the occasional email correspondence with those I consider more friends than than political contacts.
Occasionally I get the irresistible urge to call someone up and bitch and moan about what they're not saying, why they need to be more aggressive, and they always humour the dude who won't shut up and listen to my rants.
The only thing that I did hear today is that the meeting could be a sort of climax of much of the internal back and forth over future direction. I doubt that means some immediate statement as the press will no doubt want, but it's probably healthy because the party has been drifting for too long.
The core problem for the UBP is that it is a coalition (which is also it's strength), but that the coalition has become quite fragile and long ago ceded their branding to the PLP attack machine.
They've failed to claim their many historical accomplishments and allowed the caricature that the PLP paint of them to go unchallenged.
So not being in Government has compounded the problem because UBP types tend to be managers and their strengths are in managing organisations but they've proven terrible at the politics.
The PLP are of course the inverse, they've got the politics down but are terrible managers of the Government (mostly because they look at everything as a political issue to be addressed not a policy one).
So what we're seeing now is a fragile coalition that is struggling to find something to coalesce around, while the PLP base are easily rallied.
It shouldn't have gone unnoticed that as soon as Ewart Brown's leadership began to be publicly questioned post election he focused on what gets the PLP base back in line: attacks on the UBP and attacks on the press (all of which are wrapped in race).
You might also have noticed that this is exactly what John McCain's campaign have done since his VP pick, he's staged phony outrage about Obama, worked the media bias angle, and portrayed Obama as a scary non-American. (The irony of course is that most PLP Obama supporters in Bermuda will be able to both horrified at the attacks on Obama while deploying the same tactics against the UBP).
I digress.
So it will be interesting to see what comes out of tonight's meeting. Obviously I'm not there because I'm typing this and because I'm not a member anymore. Haven't been for about 2 years. I just haven't advertised the fact.
My membership expired and I consciously haven't renewed it because I have become increasingly alienated by the destructive nature of the historical party battles and the UBP's inability (and at times unwillingness) to effectively counter the PLP attack machine.
That doesn't mean that I don't support them. I remain convinced that the UBP's values and principles will best serve Bermuda, despite the challenges that the party faces in holding together a broad coalition in a Bermuda which the PLP would like to keep racially polarised for a political end.
But I am pretty much of the mind that both parties need to go away.
Perhaps, when we wake up tomorrow, we'll be half way there. Or perhaps, we'll see them continue the difficult but noble task of pushing unity and tolerance in the face of an aggressive and dogmatic counter-campaign of polarisation and division.
