Even the most casual observor would have probably noticed that there's been a flurry of activity over the past few weeks of unexpected developments and renewed talk of an election as the next logical window approaches (December).
Most notably there's been developments around moving the Southlands development to Morgan's Point; supplementing the Bermuda Police with some nebulous imported force; importing a foreign consultant to cool down the economy (or just advise on tourism development if you believe the latest shifting justification); and the draft racial quota law.
I don't claim to have any insight on the timing of an election, although it should be pretty clear that one was about to be called in the summer before the leaked Police files threw the Premier into damage control and diversion mode.
People seem pretty much split on whether it would be advantageous to call an election before or after Christmas, but my sense is that the Premier is taking things a couple of weeks at a time...much like the UBP was in 98 when things weren't going well.
Maybe he'll call it before Christmas, maybe not, I'd say probably not, particularly as the Privy Council is due to rule on gag orders versus the public interest in less than two weeks on October 29th.
I haven't seen any polls lately, although the Gazette probably is about due to publish a new one about now anyway, but this feels to me like one of those scenarios where a wounded incumbent party is waiting for the slightest little uptick in favourability to go to an election, but it just isn't coming.
We're even hearing that some PLP insiders think that the Premier should try and capitalise on the Music Festival and PGA event (which he and his party seem unable to share the credit with the members of the Mid Ocean who put in so much time and effort to both secure the tournament and run it). That's a rather shallow and insulting rationale for someone to vote PLP ("Well, they threw a good concert and sports event").
What I think is more significant is that there has been a sudden pivot on Southlands, the telegraphing of a policing arrangement, talk of cooling down the economy and the study on black males in conjunction with the workplace laws (ie. the tried and true pre-election demonising of whites and expats to redirect from a lack of progress under almost 9 years of PLP rule).
These three or four moves (plus the public education review) are all efforts to minimise as best as possible some serious vulnerabilities by putting them "under study".
These three or four moves were all relatively unexpected (and the draft Workplace Equity Act appears to have been hastily thrown out and legally problematic) but are all quite specifically targeted at trouble spots in their record.
It's a clear admission that a serious disconnect has developed between the public and the direction/performance of the PLP, particularly the Dr. Brown era.
The question is whether the UBP are able to turn this disconnect into support for them. That's hard to gauge because people appear to be keeping their cards quite close to their chests, although there is a steady chorus of dissatisfaction out there, and the UBP appear to be banking on a lower key one on one doorstep campaign.
The fact that Alex Scott in Warwick was put forth as the one who brought the sides together to discuss moving Southlands is clearly an attempt to rehabilitate some PLP candidates in Warwick, where resentment was running high over the fait d'accompli that was the Southlands development.
This election, whenever it happens, will be hard to read, and very competitive I believe. Clearly the PLP's cockiness of early 2007 has disappeared with some second guessing of the decision to not go early, giving the electorate time to digest the radicalised PLP under Dr. Brown and discover the details of the Police files.
The UBP appear quietly confident (is Dunkley trying some Jedi mind tricks here - does he want it early or not?). I'd like to see some of their new candidates raise their profile a little, but if the Southlands switch in Warwick is any indication, their doorstep strategy could be paying dividends.
Posted by Christian S. Dunleavy