On Sunday I invited people to weigh in on the timing of the calling of the election in the post leaked BHC Police Report world; I asked essentially whether Dr. Brown would rather call an election before the Privy Council rule on the gag order, or if he would wait and try and ride out the immediate fallout of the scandal.
The majority of people seemed to agree with my assessment: that he'll try and go in the next few weeks rather than face the electorate under phase two of the scandal if the Privy Council rule in favour of the public's right to know as many people expect:
My feeling was that Dr brown was going to announce the election on the Friday after LBE's funeral. Her passing had rallied the "troops" and the election would be held during the summer meaning a younger voter base. This announcement, in my opinion, was only postponed by the arrest of Mr Bascome the evening before. At the moment Dr Brown is in a quandary. Does he wait and hedge his bets that the Privy Counsel overturns the Court of Appeal, and thus hiding any "questionable dealings" Or, does he ride on the "UBP are conspiring against me" platform and make the election an emotional issue. Since Dr Brown know's (more or less) exactly what is in the "missing" ** police report on the BHC; and two courts have already blocked his attempt to hide this investigation from the public. Dr Brown will call for the election to take place before the Privy Council meets, thus the end of July. ** Missing, because other that the fact the police can't find it, I see no evidence that anything was "stolen".The other school of thought is that the immediate damage is too great and he can't go to the polls with so much speculation about the report:
This is a tough question, mainly because I believe that the emergence of the BHC scandal, and the fact that Brown is tainted by sleaze at the moment, has really thrown a spanner in the works insofar as the PLP's election plans are concerned. Certainly, every indication was that an early summer election was on the cards. I don't think that an election by the end of 2007 is likely now. I think that we're going to see Brown and the PLP try to ride out the storm for as long as possible, in the hope that the whole thing will blow over. Whilst it is tempting to think that they may call an election before the Privy Council ruling is made (which will almost certainly come down squarely against them), it is arguably just as dangerous to go to the polls before the public find out what's in the rest of the leaked documents. There's far greater potential for scare-mongering and rampant rumour when we don't know what's in those documents, than when we do.
And then of course there's the question of calling an election and the full report being posted on the internet somewhere, really putting the cat among the pigeons.
I guess we'll know the answer in the next 2-3 weeks. Clearly though, the BHC report has defined everything.
But judging by the Housing propaganda piece on TV tonight, as well as the veracity of the few remaining PLP attack dogs in the Letters to the Editor and on the talk shows, I'm still inclined to think they're ready to go.
But, one reader sent something in that raised a very interesting angle that I for one hadn't considered. I'd be very interested in the thoughts of anyone on this, but particularly any lawyers or constitutional law experts:
A General Election campaign, in a democracy, should be conducted in free and open environment to allow the electorate to receive and weigh up all the different points of view of all political parties or individuals (PLP, UBP, Independent etc). A general election campaign conducted in a time, where the incumbent political party has gagged the press through a series of legal proceedings, cannot be democratic and be considered a free and fair election.If a General Election were called whilst press freedom is still hung up in the courts, then it should be the duty of those of different political persuasion to the incumbent (not only the UBP, but Independents and others) to legally challenge the calling of a General Election opposition in the Bermuda courts and if necessary, appealing to the Privy Council.
That's an extremely interesting scenario that I certainly can't say I've seen tested.
Your thoughts?
