October 05, 2006

Something doesn't add up

Reading the latest poll results online, very quickly, from NY, my initial reaction to the Independence results is that they don't really make sense.

Big swings in undecideds such as this, in a two month period, just don't happen - in either direction - barring some major development to change people's minds. And that hasn't happened.

Historically support, opposition and undecideds have remained extremely stable, so a sudden move is odd; particulalry when you consider that the main advocate of independence had a slight downtick in his popular support, yet his signature issue experienced a reduction in outright opposition.

Doesn't add up to me, although the fact that support has held steady does. I just don't see what event would have triggered so many undecideds to reconsider. Nothing happened.

Posted by Christian S. Dunleavy