I've been meaning to get to this topic for some time now but here are my thoughts on the implications of the Sandy’s by-election for the PLP.
The fact that 9 candidates have put themselves forward is being spun by the PLP as an endorsement of a reinvigorated party post Jennifer Smith. I don't think things are that simple.
Sandy’s North is a PLP safe seat and anything less than an overwhelming victory for the PLP (ie. greater than the July by-election result) will be an indicator that all is not well at Alaska Hall. Remember, Alex Scott is the PLP old guard, notwithstanding his carefully crafted new persona. If turnout is lower than the general election, as it traditionally is in by-elections, it will be a further indication that Mr. Scott's posturing isn't having much traction with the large disenchanted traditional PLP support base. It is notable that the seats with the lowest turnout in the general election were the PLP's safest seats. Constituencies 14, 16 ,21, 29, 36 were all in the 64%-68% range. Those were the PLP's safest areas. Conversely turnout island-wide was 74.9%, fully 10 points off the PLP safe seats. The PLP were unable to mobilise their core support in July and will struggle again in a by-election, which are traditionally low in turnout.
The PLP are attempting to energise the Sandy’s North voters by claiming that almost 200 new members in the past few weeks in constituency 36. The more telling number is that several weeks ago they only had 60 members in one of their safest seats! It should be easy to get 200 members in your safest seats, that's not an accomplishment, that's normal.
Dennis Lister was out on the news last night downplaying the area and expectations for the PLP. Why would they do this if they knew they already had over 200 votes in the bag in one of their safest seats? They're worried that turnout will be even lower and their margin will be reduced and are playing the expectation game. Anything other than an increased number of votes for the PLP and an increased turnout is a loss.
So what can be read into the 9 potential candidates who've put themselves forward. Well, they certainly wouldn't get 9 people putting themselves forward in a marginal or UBP area so at the minimum that confirms the safe seat criteria, although I think there is something to be said for a renewed interest after years of Jennifer Smith's heavy hand.
One important question is: Who do the branch want and who do the Central Committee want? Alex Scott is playing coy on this, trying to stay neutral and not supporting any particular candidate. With 9 candidates in play it's almost certain that some supporters will be bitterly disappointed that their choice was unsuccessful, particularly where so many residents are related to the candidates! That's why Dennis Lister was quoted in the paper as doing some ground work saying: "...regardless of whether their preferred candidate is chosen they should leave the room as a 'united front to fight a campaign...for constituency 36'".
It has been widely reported that former Sen. David Burch has the support of the Cox family - a powerful endorsement. Also Michael Scott was long considered the favourite due to his history of running (unsuccessfully) in the west end and his grooming for the AG's position. Mr. Scott's recent snub by the Premier for the Attorney General's role could suggest that he's not the Premier's preferred candidate. Surely conferring the AG's role in advance of the by-election would have increased the profile and stature of Mr. Scott in the constituency.
According to a few people I've spoken with it seems that Ellen Kate Horton isn't the most popular candidate in the area and many of the others look unlikely.
Rodney Smith shows up all over the place in by-elections and comes with a certain amount of baggage after unceremoniously evicting a tenant from one of his houses and putting their belongings in the rain, in the middle of the General Election campaign of 1998! He's really a tag along for Dale Butler and mostly likes to keep his profile up in the press and on the radio talk shows.
Scott Simmons is also a possibility and would have the support of Mr. Scott after being selected as party public relations officer after the 2003 election/. Mr. Simmons also comes with some problems as well after questions surfaced about his character during the run-up to the 2003 election.
So, it will be intriguing to see who emerges tonight as the winner. I'd have to think Michael Scott and David Burch would be the favourites - but you never know in politics.
The implication for Alex Scott's leadership could be significant. More on that in my next post.
