Less than 8 months ago the successful PLP candidates split 11-11 between Jennifer Smith and Ewart Brown loyalists - a stand-off that threatened to bring down the PLP electoral success and continues to have ramifications for the PLP, contrary to the pronouncements that it's all behind them.
Mr. Scott's position as Premier continues to be tenuous, although I don't think it's on the verge of collapse. The continued presence of Jennifer Smith supporters in Cabinet is a tactic by Premier Scott to reign in any opposition and keep them under his thumb. The recent cabinet shuffle saw only one new face and he was an Alex Scott appointed Senator. If Mr. Scott had been secure he'd have kicked Renee Webb to the curb...but she would surely reciprocate by attempting to undermine his leadership.
The outcome of the Sandy’s By-election could put further strain on Mr. Scott's leadership, particularly if Michael Scott or David Burch emerge as successful on March 4th.
Both of these individuals are strongly aligned with Jennifer Smith, as is Paula Cox who appears to favour the unpopular former Premier's sidekick Col. Burch (Ms. Smith and Mr. Burch were seen hanging out together recently at a Bermuda Festival event - the alliance remains intact). Any endorsement from the Cox family could play a major factor in nominating a successor. If the branch elects a 'Smithite' to replace Eugene Cox, who was the key to Ewart Brown capitulating in his challenge for the Premier's post, Mr. Scott's support among his parliamentary colleagues could be further threatened.
Now, who could the challenger be? Well surely the slick Dr. Brown continues to have his sights firmly on the Premiership, but I'd put forward Jennifer Smith as candidate number 1. Jennifer Smith? Would she really stage a comeback? Well who knows what she's thinking, but I don't quite understand why Ms. Smith is still hanging around after being treated so harshly by her colleagues and moved to the backbench. There's a few potential explanations, I'll speculate here:
1) The former Premier has absolutely nothing else to do and being an MP continues to offer some prestige in the community and a place to hang out on a Friday. Well, that could very well be the case.
2) Ms. Smith remains loyal to the party and knows the St. George's seat could be lost to Kenny Bascome if she were to step down. Ok, a possibility.
3) Ms. Smith would like to be the first female Speaker of the House. Maybe, this has some credibility. It is a position that confers what Ms. Smith relished -power, prestige and mostly the ability to exert control, at least on Fridays - but it's still a demotion.
4) Ms. Smith has a desire to return as Premier and is waiting for her opportunity to strike. Now this one intrigues me. Why? Well, I can't comprehend why Ms. Smith is hanging around because it certainly isn't the money so it must be something else.
Ms. Smith is pulling in somewhere around the backbencher's salary of $36,000 per year plus a little extra for taking on the Deputy Speaker role.
'So what' you say, 'It's better than nothing if she quits'.
Au contraire, the former Premier wouldn't be getting nothing if she quits. In fact, she'd immediately start pulling in her Premier's pension if she quit! There's a big difference in dollars.
My understanding is that in order to qualify for a pension you have to have been in the Parliament or Senate for 8 consecutive years and will be paid a pension at your highest position held for 3 years. In Ms. Smith's case that would be the Premier, who pulls in somewhere in excess of $100,000 per year. So if we estimate the standard MP pension payment to be around 80% of your highest salary earned for 3 years, Ms. Smith could be pulling in around $80,000 per year for doing absolutely nothing. I think that means you can dismiss explanations 1, 2 & 3 above, you can't live the lifestyle Ms. Smith took a fancy to in Bermuda on $36,000!
So why would Ms. Smith give up around $40,000 per year to sit as a backbencher? I can only think of one thing that convinces me. If Ms. Smith can maintain her 11 supporters it only takes one more to give her a majority. If Alex Scott screws up (or takes ill) Ms. Smith could have another run at it.
Jennifer Smith remains popular with the party's branch membership, who do have the final say in leadership selection, but it would be one hell of a battle to watch! I'd like to be in that room - as a spectator! The election of either David Burch of Michael Scott could make this option a little more realistic for the former Premier.
The only thing that really stands in the way of my conspiracy theory is that Alex Scott was Jennifer's hand picked successor. So as someone said to me recently: "Loyalty to Jennifer is loyalty to Alex, he falls into the line of succession". (Remember that statement whenever Alex Scott tries to distance himself from his kingmaker)
Long-shot? Maybe. Anyone else have any theories?
